Every FBS game this week, scored against the spread. Move a slider to change how much each factor counts; every game and the back-test update as you go.
Informational only. This page computes a lean from public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here. If you bet, do it legally and within your means.
Turn the dials
1.0× is the weight the data fitted. 0× switches a factor off; 2× doubles it.
How often these settings have been right
The honest number first: at the fitted weights, scoring each season with weights fitted only on the seasons before it, the formula has picked the covering side 49.5% of the time (4,125–4,202–155, 2015–2026). That is a coin flip. The table below scores games the weights have already seen, and moves with the dials.
At these settings the formula has picked the covering side 49.4% of the time since 2014, below the 52.4% a bettor needs to break even at standard −110 pricing.
When the edge is
Record (W–L–P)
Cover rate
any size
4486–4589–167
49.4%
1+ points
3776–3878–143
49.3%
3+ points
2467–2561–92
49.1%
5+ points
1506–1574–46
48.9%
The table is in-sample: every game from 2014 through 2026 (9,242 games) scored with the factors as they stood before kickoff, against the median closing line of the books CollegeFootballData.com reports. Tuning the dials to raise this number is fitting the past, not predicting the future.
Week 4, 2026 season
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Thu, Sep 24 · 7:30 PM ET
LineLiberty −2.75
Strong lean · Liberty
Strong lean to Liberty to cover: our margin says Liberty by 16.2, and the line is Liberty −2.75.
Our margin
Liberty by 16.2
Edge vs. line
−13.5 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−461
1.00 × +0.0422
−19.5
Recent form
−22.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−16.2
The line, as a home margin
−2.8
Edge
−13.5
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Army at Temple
Fri, Sep 25 · 4:00 PM ET
LineArmy −3
Slight lean · Army
Slight lean to Army to cover: our margin says Army by 5.7, and the line is Army −3.
Our margin
Army by 5.7
Edge vs. line
−2.7 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−200
1.00 × +0.0422
−8.4
Recent form
−23.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−5.7
The line, as a home margin
−3.0
Edge
−2.7
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Navy at UAB
Fri, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET
LineNavy −7
Lean · UAB
Lean to UAB to cover: our margin says Navy by 2.3, and the line is Navy −7.
Our margin
Navy by 2.3
Edge vs. line
+4.7 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−120
1.00 × +0.0422
−5.1
Recent form
−9.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.08
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−2.3
The line, as a home margin
−7.0
Edge
+4.7
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Northwestern at Indiana
Fri, Sep 25 · 8:00 PM ET
LineIndiana −21
Lean · Indiana
Lean to Indiana to cover: our margin says Indiana by 24.3, and the line is Indiana −21.
Our margin
Indiana by 24.3
Edge vs. line
+3.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+496
1.00 × +0.0422
+20.9
Recent form
+14.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.08
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+24.3
The line, as a home margin
+21.0
Edge
+3.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Clemson at California
Fri, Sep 25 · 10:30 PM ET
LineCalifornia −0.25
Strong lean · Clemson
Strong lean to Clemson to cover: our margin says Clemson by 5.1, and the line is California −0.25.
Our margin
Clemson by 5.1
Edge vs. line
−5.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−210
1.00 × +0.0422
−8.9
Recent form
+2.75
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−5.1
The line, as a home margin
+0.3
Edge
−5.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Colorado at Baylor
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineBaylor −10
Slight lean · Baylor
Slight lean to Baylor to cover: our margin says Baylor by 12.0, and the line is Baylor −10.
Our margin
Baylor by 12.0
Edge vs. line
+2.0 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+204
1.00 × +0.0422
+8.6
Recent form
+13.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+12.0
The line, as a home margin
+10.0
Edge
+2.0
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineVirginia Tech −14
Strong lean · Boston College
Strong lean to Boston College to cover: our margin says Virginia Tech by 0.7, and the line is Virginia Tech −14.
Our margin
Virginia Tech by 0.7
Edge vs. line
+13.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−109
1.00 × +0.0422
−4.6
Recent form
+3.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−0.7
The line, as a home margin
−14.0
Edge
+13.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Illinois at Ohio State
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineOhio State −26.75
Strong lean · Illinois
Strong lean to Illinois to cover: our margin says Ohio State by 21.7, and the line is Ohio State −26.75.
Our margin
Ohio State by 21.7
Edge vs. line
−5.0 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+443
1.00 × +0.0422
+18.7
Recent form
+18.50
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.25
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+21.7
The line, as a home margin
+26.8
Edge
−5.0
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Colorado State at UTSA
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineUTSA −13.5
Slight lean · Colorado State
Slight lean to Colorado State to cover: our margin says UTSA by 11.1, and the line is UTSA −13.5.
Our margin
UTSA by 11.1
Edge vs. line
−2.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+179
1.00 × +0.0422
+7.6
Recent form
+15.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+11.1
The line, as a home margin
+13.5
Edge
−2.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
UNLV at Akron
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineUNLV −13.5
Strong lean · UNLV
Strong lean to UNLV to cover: our margin says UNLV by 21.7, and the line is UNLV −13.5.
Our margin
UNLV by 21.7
Edge vs. line
−8.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−583
1.00 × +0.0422
−24.6
Recent form
−6.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−21.7
The line, as a home margin
−13.5
Edge
−8.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Wake Forest at Louisville
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineLouisville −12.5
Slight lean · Wake Forest
Slight lean to Wake Forest to cover: our margin says Louisville by 10.7, and the line is Louisville −12.5.
Our margin
Louisville by 10.7
Edge vs. line
−1.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+176
1.00 × +0.0422
+7.4
Recent form
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
−1.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.1
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+10.7
The line, as a home margin
+12.5
Edge
−1.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
San Diego State at Toledo
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineToledo −3
Lean · Toledo
Lean to Toledo to cover: our margin says Toledo by 7.3, and the line is Toledo −3.
Our margin
Toledo by 7.3
Edge vs. line
+4.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+93
1.00 × +0.0422
+3.9
Recent form
+10.75
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.08
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+7.3
The line, as a home margin
+3.0
Edge
+4.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Ball State at Kent State
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineKent State −3.25
Lean · Ball State
Lean to Ball State to cover: our margin says Kent State by 0.2, and the line is Kent State −3.25.
Our margin
Kent State by 0.2
Edge vs. line
−3.0 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−74
1.00 × +0.0422
−3.1
Recent form
+4.50
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+0.2
The line, as a home margin
+3.3
Edge
−3.0
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineTexas Tech −34.5
Slight lean · Sam Houston
Slight lean to Sam Houston to cover: our margin says Texas Tech by 31.7, and the line is Texas Tech −34.5.
Our margin
Texas Tech by 31.7
Edge vs. line
−2.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+680
1.00 × +0.0422
+28.7
Recent form
+20.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
−6.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.4
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+31.7
The line, as a home margin
+34.5
Edge
−2.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Texas at Tennessee
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
LineTexas −4.5
Coin flip · Tennessee
Coin flip: our margin (Texas by 3.8) is within a point of the line (Texas −4.5), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
Our margin
Texas by 3.8
Edge vs. line
+0.7 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−164
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.9
Recent form
−15.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−3.8
The line, as a home margin
−4.5
Edge
+0.7
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 0+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
South Alabama at Kentucky
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:45 PM ET
LineKentucky −20.5
Strong lean · South Alabama
Strong lean to South Alabama to cover: our margin says Kentucky by 8.0, and the line is Kentucky −20.5.
Our margin
Kentucky by 8.0
Edge vs. line
−12.5 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+113
1.00 × +0.0422
+4.8
Recent form
−18.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+8.0
The line, as a home margin
+20.5
Edge
−12.5
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
UCLA at Maryland
Sat, Sep 26 · 1:30 PM ET
LineUCLA −1.5
Lean · Maryland
Lean to Maryland to cover: our margin says Maryland by 1.9, and the line is UCLA −1.5.
Our margin
Maryland by 1.9
Edge vs. line
+3.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−28
1.00 × +0.0422
−1.2
Recent form
−13.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+1.9
The line, as a home margin
−1.5
Edge
+3.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Notre Dame at Purdue
Sat, Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ET
LineNotre Dame −27.75
Coin flip · Notre Dame
Coin flip: our margin (Notre Dame by 28.7) is within a point of the line (Notre Dame −27.75), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
Our margin
Notre Dame by 28.7
Edge vs. line
−1.0 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−750
1.00 × +0.0422
−31.7
Recent form
−57.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.4
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−28.7
The line, as a home margin
−27.8
Edge
−1.0
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 0+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
Sat, Sep 26 · 2:00 PM ET
LineGeorgia State −10.5
Strong lean · Northern Illinois
Strong lean to Northern Illinois to cover: our margin says Georgia State by 4.9, and the line is Georgia State −10.5.
Our margin
Georgia State by 4.9
Edge vs. line
−5.6 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+34
1.00 × +0.0422
+1.4
Recent form
+14.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+4.9
The line, as a home margin
+10.5
Edge
−5.6
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:00 PM ET
LineHawai'i −3
Slight lean · Hawai'i
Slight lean to Hawai'i to cover: our margin says Hawai'i by 4.3, and the line is Hawai'i −3.
Our margin
Hawai'i by 4.3
Edge vs. line
−1.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−164
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.9
Recent form
−12.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−4.3
The line, as a home margin
−3.0
Edge
−1.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
TCU at UCF
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineTCU −3
Coin flip · TCU
Coin flip: our margin (TCU by 3.1) is within a point of the line (TCU −3), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
Our margin
TCU by 3.1
Edge vs. line
−0.1 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−148
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.2
Recent form
−13.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−3.1
The line, as a home margin
−3.0
Edge
−0.1
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 0+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Utah at Iowa State
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineUtah −8.25
Slight lean · Iowa State
Slight lean to Iowa State to cover: our margin says Utah by 6.2, and the line is Utah −8.25.
Our margin
Utah by 6.2
Edge vs. line
+2.1 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−224
1.00 × +0.0422
−9.5
Recent form
−5.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.08
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−6.2
The line, as a home margin
−8.3
Edge
+2.1
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Boise State at Western Michigan
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineBoise State −7
Strong lean · Western Michigan
Strong lean to Western Michigan to cover: our margin says Boise State by 0.8, and the line is Boise State −7.
Our margin
Boise State by 0.8
Edge vs. line
+6.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−90
1.00 × +0.0422
−3.8
Recent form
+12.75
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.08
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−0.8
The line, as a home margin
−7.0
Edge
+6.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
UConn at Miami (OH)
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineMiami (OH) −3.5
Strong lean · UConn
Strong lean to UConn to cover: our margin says UConn by 5.7, and the line is Miami (OH) −3.5.
Our margin
UConn by 5.7
Edge vs. line
−9.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−211
1.00 × +0.0422
−8.9
Recent form
−14.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−5.7
The line, as a home margin
+3.5
Edge
−9.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineNew Mexico −11.25
Slight lean · New Mexico State
Slight lean to New Mexico State to cover: our margin says New Mexico by 8.9, and the line is New Mexico −11.25.
Our margin
New Mexico by 8.9
Edge vs. line
+2.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−298
1.00 × +0.0422
−12.6
Recent form
−14.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−8.9
The line, as a home margin
−11.3
Edge
+2.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Ole Miss at Florida
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineFlorida −3
Strong lean · Ole Miss
Strong lean to Ole Miss to cover: our margin says Ole Miss by 4.7, and the line is Florida −3.
Our margin
Ole Miss by 4.7
Edge vs. line
−7.7 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−191
1.00 × +0.0422
−8.1
Recent form
+2.50
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−4.7
The line, as a home margin
+3.0
Edge
−7.7
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Oklahoma at Georgia
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineGeorgia −14
Slight lean · Oklahoma
Slight lean to Oklahoma to cover: our margin says Georgia by 11.5, and the line is Georgia −14.
Our margin
Georgia by 11.5
Edge vs. line
−2.5 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+190
1.00 × +0.0422
+8.0
Recent form
+13.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+11.5
The line, as a home margin
+14.0
Edge
−2.5
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Iowa at Michigan
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
LineMichigan −5.5
Strong lean · Iowa
Strong lean to Iowa to cover: our margin says Iowa by 1.9, and the line is Michigan −5.5.
Our margin
Iowa by 1.9
Edge vs. line
−7.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−110
1.00 × +0.0422
−4.6
Recent form
−11.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−1.9
The line, as a home margin
+5.5
Edge
−7.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Houston at Georgia Southern
Sat, Sep 26 · 4:00 PM ET
LineHouston −18.5
Strong lean · Georgia Southern
Strong lean to Georgia Southern to cover: our margin says Houston by 3.5, and the line is Houston −18.5.
Our margin
Houston by 3.5
Edge vs. line
+15.0 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−160
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.8
Recent form
−4.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
−1.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.1
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−3.5
The line, as a home margin
−18.5
Edge
+15.0
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Sat, Sep 26 · 4:15 PM ET
LineAuburn −9.5
Strong lean · Vanderbilt
Strong lean to Vanderbilt to cover: our margin says Auburn by 0.1, and the line is Auburn −9.5.
Our margin
Auburn by 0.1
Edge vs. line
−9.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−74
1.00 × +0.0422
−3.1
Recent form
−0.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.42
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+0.1
The line, as a home margin
+9.5
Edge
−9.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Nebraska at Michigan State
Sat, Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET
LineNebraska −5.5
Slight lean · Michigan State
Slight lean to Michigan State to cover: our margin says Nebraska by 4.2, and the line is Nebraska −5.5.
Our margin
Nebraska by 4.2
Edge vs. line
+1.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−168
1.00 × +0.0422
−7.1
Recent form
0.00
1.00 × +0.0063
0.0
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.25
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−4.2
The line, as a home margin
−5.5
Edge
+1.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
South Florida at Bowling Green
Sat, Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET
LineSouth Florida −17.5
Slight lean · South Florida
Slight lean to South Florida to cover: our margin says South Florida by 20.4, and the line is South Florida −17.5.
Our margin
South Florida by 20.4
Edge vs. line
−2.9 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−544
1.00 × +0.0422
−23.0
Recent form
−29.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.2
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−20.4
The line, as a home margin
−17.5
Edge
−2.9
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Wisconsin at Penn State
Sat, Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET
LinePenn State −10
Strong lean · Penn State
Strong lean to Penn State to cover: our margin says Penn State by 18.4, and the line is Penn State −10.
Our margin
Penn State by 18.4
Edge vs. line
+8.4 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+353
1.00 × +0.0422
+14.9
Recent form
+23.50
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+18.4
The line, as a home margin
+10.0
Edge
+8.4
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Delaware at Virginia
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
LineVirginia −19.5
Strong lean · Delaware
Strong lean to Delaware to cover: our margin says Virginia by 11.6, and the line is Virginia −19.5.
Our margin
Virginia by 11.6
Edge vs. line
−7.9 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+198
1.00 × +0.0422
+8.4
Recent form
−5.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+11.6
The line, as a home margin
+19.5
Edge
−7.9
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
James Madison at Old Dominion
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
LineJames Madison −6
Strong lean · James Madison
Strong lean to James Madison to cover: our margin says James Madison by 17.1, and the line is James Madison −6.
Our margin
James Madison by 17.1
Edge vs. line
−11.1 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−482
1.00 × +0.0422
−20.3
Recent form
−3.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−17.1
The line, as a home margin
−6.0
Edge
−11.1
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Central Michigan at Miami
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:30 PM ET
LineMiami −41.25
Strong lean · Central Michigan
Strong lean to Central Michigan to cover: our margin says Miami by 29.1, and the line is Miami −41.25.
Our margin
Miami by 29.1
Edge vs. line
−12.1 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+604
1.00 × +0.0422
+25.5
Recent form
+28.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.2
Rest edge
+1.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.1
Cover trend
+0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+29.1
The line, as a home margin
+41.3
Edge
−12.1
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Louisiana at Charlotte
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:30 PM ET
LineLouisiana −10
Lean · Charlotte
Lean to Charlotte to cover: our margin says Louisiana by 6.4, and the line is Louisiana −10.
Our margin
Louisiana by 6.4
Edge vs. line
+3.6 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−228
1.00 × +0.0422
−9.6
Recent form
−20.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.25
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−6.4
The line, as a home margin
−10.0
Edge
+3.6
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Southern Miss at Tulane
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineTulane −18.25
Slight lean · Southern Miss
Slight lean to Southern Miss to cover: our margin says Tulane by 16.0, and the line is Tulane −18.25.
Our margin
Tulane by 16.0
Edge vs. line
−2.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+296
1.00 × +0.0422
+12.5
Recent form
+8.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+16.0
The line, as a home margin
+18.3
Edge
−2.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Kansas State at Cincinnati
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineKansas State −6.25
Slight lean · Cincinnati
Slight lean to Cincinnati to cover: our margin says Kansas State by 4.4, and the line is Kansas State −6.25.
Our margin
Kansas State by 4.4
Edge vs. line
+1.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−180
1.00 × +0.0422
−7.6
Recent form
−16.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−4.4
The line, as a home margin
−6.3
Edge
+1.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
South Carolina at Alabama
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineAlabama −12.5
Lean · South Carolina
Lean to South Carolina to cover: our margin says Alabama by 9.3, and the line is Alabama −12.5.
Our margin
Alabama by 9.3
Edge vs. line
−3.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+142
1.00 × +0.0422
+6.0
Recent form
−8.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+9.3
The line, as a home margin
+12.5
Edge
−3.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineJacksonville State −7
Slight lean · Jacksonville State
Slight lean to Jacksonville State to cover: our margin says Jacksonville State by 8.6, and the line is Jacksonville State −7.
Our margin
Jacksonville State by 8.6
Edge vs. line
+1.6 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+129
1.00 × +0.0422
+5.4
Recent form
−11.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+8.6
The line, as a home margin
+7.0
Edge
+1.6
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineWest Virginia −1.75
Strong lean · West Virginia
Strong lean to West Virginia to cover: our margin says West Virginia by 8.4, and the line is West Virginia −1.75.
Our margin
West Virginia by 8.4
Edge vs. line
+6.7 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+134
1.00 × +0.0422
+5.7
Recent form
−4.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+8.4
The line, as a home margin
+1.8
Edge
+6.7
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
LineArkansas State −6.25
Slight lean · Kennesaw State
Slight lean to Kennesaw State to cover: our margin says Arkansas State by 4.7, and the line is Arkansas State −6.25.
Our margin
Arkansas State by 4.7
Edge vs. line
−1.5 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+34
1.00 × +0.0422
+1.4
Recent form
+10.75
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
−0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+4.7
The line, as a home margin
+6.3
Edge
−1.5
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Texas A&M at LSU
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
LineLSU −8.5
Strong lean · Texas A&M
Strong lean to Texas A&M to cover: our margin says LSU by 1.7, and the line is LSU −8.5.
Our margin
LSU by 1.7
Edge vs. line
−6.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−38
1.00 × +0.0422
−1.6
Recent form
0.00
1.00 × +0.0063
0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+1.7
The line, as a home margin
+8.5
Edge
−6.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Oregon at USC
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
LineOregon −3
Strong lean · USC
Strong lean to USC to cover: our margin says USC by 3.2, and the line is Oregon −3.
Our margin
USC by 3.2
Edge vs. line
+6.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+6
1.00 × +0.0422
+0.3
Recent form
+23.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+3.2
The line, as a home margin
−3.0
Edge
+6.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Arizona at Washington State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
LineArizona −10
Strong lean · Washington State
Strong lean to Washington State to cover: our margin says Arizona by 0.4, and the line is Arizona −10.
Our margin
Arizona by 0.4
Edge vs. line
+9.6 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−101
1.00 × +0.0422
−4.3
Recent form
−7.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
+0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−0.4
The line, as a home margin
−10.0
Edge
+9.6
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Troy at Utah State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
LineUtah State −3
Slight lean · Troy
Slight lean to Troy to cover: our margin says Utah State by 0.2, and the line is Utah State −3.
Our margin
Utah State by 0.2
Edge vs. line
−2.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−73
1.00 × +0.0422
−3.1
Recent form
−5.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+0.2
The line, as a home margin
+3.0
Edge
−2.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
App State at NC State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
LineNC State −14
Slight lean · App State
Slight lean to App State to cover: our margin says NC State by 11.2, and the line is NC State −14.
Our margin
NC State by 11.2
Edge vs. line
−2.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+186
1.00 × +0.0422
+7.8
Recent form
+7.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+11.2
The line, as a home margin
+14.0
Edge
−2.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Missouri at Mississippi State
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:45 PM ET
LineMississippi State −6.5
Lean · Missouri
Lean to Missouri to cover: our margin says Mississippi State by 2.2, and the line is Mississippi State −6.5.
Our margin
Mississippi State by 2.2
Edge vs. line
−4.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−27
1.00 × +0.0422
−1.1
Recent form
+8.00
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+2.2
The line, as a home margin
+6.5
Edge
−4.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Tulsa at Arkansas
Sat, Sep 26 · 8:00 PM ET
LineArkansas −7
Lean · Arkansas
Lean to Arkansas to cover: our margin says Arkansas by 10.8, and the line is Arkansas −7.
Our margin
Arkansas by 10.8
Edge vs. line
+3.8 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+195
1.00 × +0.0422
+8.2
Recent form
−26.00
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.2
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+10.8
The line, as a home margin
+7.0
Edge
+3.8
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 3+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Sat, Sep 26 · 8:00 PM ET
LineFlorida Atlantic −13.5
Strong lean · UL Monroe
Strong lean to UL Monroe to cover: our margin says Florida Atlantic by 3.2, and the line is Florida Atlantic −13.5.
Our margin
Florida Atlantic by 3.2
Edge vs. line
+10.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−164
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.9
Recent form
−1.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−3.2
The line, as a home margin
−13.5
Edge
+10.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Oregon State at UTEP
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
LineOregon State −10.5
Strong lean · UTEP
Strong lean to UTEP to cover: our margin says Oregon State by 3.9, and the line is Oregon State −10.5.
Our margin
Oregon State by 3.9
Edge vs. line
+6.6 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−155
1.00 × +0.0422
−6.5
Recent form
−13.50
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
−0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−3.9
The line, as a home margin
−10.5
Edge
+6.6
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Missouri State at SMU
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
LineSMU −34.75
Strong lean · Missouri State
Strong lean to Missouri State to cover: our margin says SMU by 21.5, and the line is SMU −34.75.
Our margin
SMU by 21.5
Edge vs. line
−13.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+425
1.00 × +0.0422
+17.9
Recent form
+17.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.1
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.42
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+21.5
The line, as a home margin
+34.8
Edge
−13.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Massachusetts at Sacramento State
Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
LineMassachusetts −3.75
Strong lean · Sacramento State
Strong lean to Sacramento State to cover: our margin says Sacramento State by 12.1, and the line is Massachusetts −3.75.
Our margin
Sacramento State by 12.1
Edge vs. line
+15.9 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+221
1.00 × +0.0422
+9.3
Recent form
−4.75
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.0
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
0.00
1.00 × +0.2701
0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+12.1
The line, as a home margin
−3.8
Edge
+15.9
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Rice at Fresno State
Sat, Sep 26 · 10:00 PM ET
LineFresno State −13.5
Strong lean · Fresno State
Strong lean to Fresno State to cover: our margin says Fresno State by 22.6, and the line is Fresno State −13.5.
Our margin
Fresno State by 22.6
Edge vs. line
+9.1 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+449
1.00 × +0.0422
+18.9
Recent form
+44.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.3
Rest edge
0.00
1.00 × +0.0670
0.0
Cover trend
+0.33
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+22.6
The line, as a home margin
+13.5
Edge
+9.1
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Sat, Sep 26 · 10:30 PM ET
LineGeorgia Tech −3.5
Slight lean · Georgia Tech
Slight lean to Georgia Tech to cover: our margin says Georgia Tech by 5.7, and the line is Georgia Tech −3.5.
Our margin
Georgia Tech by 5.7
Edge vs. line
−2.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
−204
1.00 × +0.0422
−8.6
Recent form
−13.25
1.00 × +0.0063
−0.1
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.50
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.1
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
−5.7
The line, as a home margin
−3.5
Edge
−2.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 1+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Air Force at Nevada
Sat, Sep 26 · 10:30 PM ET
LineAir Force −5.5
Strong lean · Nevada
Strong lean to Nevada to cover: our margin says Nevada by 3.7, and the line is Air Force −5.5.
Our margin
Nevada by 3.7
Edge vs. line
+9.2 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+18
1.00 × +0.0422
+0.8
Recent form
+5.25
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
−7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
−0.5
Cover trend
+0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
+0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+3.7
The line, as a home margin
−5.5
Edge
+9.2
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Minnesota at Washington
Sat, Sep 26 · 11:00 PM ET
LineWashington −10
Strong lean · Washington
Strong lean to Washington to cover: our margin says Washington by 15.3, and the line is Washington −10.
Our margin
Washington by 15.3
Edge vs. line
+5.3 pts
Cover chance
49%
How this was scored
Factor
Home minus away
Weight × fit
Points
Power rating
+273
1.00 × +0.0422
+11.5
Recent form
+2.50
1.00 × +0.0063
+0.0
Rest edge
+7.00
1.00 × +0.0670
+0.5
Cover trend
−0.17
1.00 × +0.2701
−0.0
Home field
+1.00
1.00 × +3.3195
+3.3
Our margin (home minus away)
+15.3
The line, as a home margin
+10.0
Edge
+5.3
Line source: median closing spread of 2 sportsbooks via CollegeFootballData.com. Cover chance is how often games with an edge of 5+ points covered at these settings since 2014(the table above). It is the record for edges this size, not the formula's confidence.
Results through 2026 week 3 (last game 2026-09-19). Lines: CollegeFootballData.com, one snapshot a day.
How it works
For each game we compute five numbers about the home team relative to the away team, multiply each by a fitted coefficient and the weight you set, and add them up. That sum is our expected home margin. The edge is that margin minus the line.
Our margin (home − away) =
w₁ × +0.0422 × Elo difference
+ w₂ × +0.0063 × form difference (avg margin, last 4 games)
+ w₃ × +0.0670 × rest difference (days, capped at 14)
+ w₄ × +0.2701 × cover-rate difference (last 6 games)
+ w₅ × +3.3195 × home game (1, or 0 at a neutral site)
Edge = our margin − the line (written as a home margin)
Cover chance = how often past games with an edge that size covered
The coefficients are an ordinary least-squares fit of actual final margins on those five factors over every FBS-against-FBS game with a posted line from 2014 through 2026 (9,242 games), refit each time the page regenerates. Each slider (w) scales one coefficient: 1.0× is the fit, 0× removes the factor.
The cover chance is the record, not a bell-curve reading of the edge. In college football a bigger edge has not meant a likelier cover: since 2014, games where the formula disagreed with the line by five points or more covered no more often than games where it barely disagreed. So each game shows the back-test's cover rate for edges its size, at the settings you have chosen. A “strong lean” here means the formula and the line are far apart, not that the formula is likely right.
The five factors
Power rating. CollegeFootballData.com's pre-game Elo rating for each team, published with every game. It is their rating, not ours: the NFL dial computes its own Elo, but there is no published college method to follow, so this dial takes theirs as it stands.
Recent form. Each team's average points margin over its last four games against FBS opponents, whichever season they fell in.
Rest edge. Days since each team last played an FBS opponent, capped at 14 so a bye and an off-season count the same.
Cover trend. The share of its last six lined games each team covered the closing spread (a push counts one half).
Home field. 1 when the home team is at its own stadium, 0 at a neutral site: conference title games, bowls, kickoff classics.
The signs are printed as the fit found them. Unlike the NFL, cover trend comes out positive here, and recent form adds almost nothing once the power rating is in, because the rating already moves with every result.
What the record is, and isn't
Two records, and the first is the one to trust. The out-of-sample record scores each season from 2015 on with coefficients fitted only on the seasons before it, at the fitted weights, so no graded game was seen by the fit that graded it.
Season
Fitted on
Record (W–L–P)
Cover rate
2015
2014–2014
378–377–10
50.1%
2016
2014–2015
359–385–16
48.3%
2017
2014–2016
378–379–19
49.9%
2018
2014–2017
372–387–13
49.0%
2019
2014–2018
368–395–11
48.2%
2020
2014–2019
271–253–10
51.7%
2021
2014–2020
372–387–11
49.0%
2022
2014–2021
381–382–13
49.9%
2023
2014–2022
396–381–15
51.0%
2024
2014–2023
385–396–17
49.3%
2025
2014–2024
395–396–17
49.9%
2026
2014–2025
70–84–3
45.5%
All
4,125–4,202–155
49.5%
The back-test under the dials replays the fitted games with the factors as they stood before each kickoff and counts how often the side the formula leaned to covered. It is in-sample, so it flatters the default settings, and moving a dial to push it up is curve-fitting. Both records are graded against the median closing spread of the books CollegeFootballData.com reports for each game, not the line you see during the week.
What it leaves out
Games against FCS teams, on the board and in the fit.
Quarterback changes and injuries. The NFL dial reads each week's starter from its schedule file; no public college source names starters before kickoff, so this dial cannot.
Play-by-play efficiency, weather, coaching changes and transfers. None are in the inputs.
Line movement. The line is a snapshot taken once a day; a book's number when you look may differ.
Sources
CollegeFootballData.com (API, used under its terms) — FBS scores, sites, pre-game Elo ratings and closing spreads from the books it tracks, 2013 onward.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NCAA, any conference or any school.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the record come out around 50%?
Because the closing line already prices in what public numbers know. Scored honestly, each season on weights fitted only on earlier seasons, this formula lands on a coin flip against it. A tool claiming much better from a simple public formula is either overfitting or not showing its record. The dial shows where the numbers disagree with the line and how that disagreement has fared; it does not beat the market.
Why only FBS against FBS?
Games against FCS teams often have no posted line, and the FCS side has little rating history, so they would add noise to the fit and blanks to the board. They are left out of both, and a team's recent form and rest count only its FBS games.
Where does the power rating come from?
CollegeFootballData.com publishes a pre-game Elo rating for every FBS team before every game. The NFL Spread Dial computes its own Elo from a published method; no equivalent method exists for college, so this dial uses CollegeFootballData's rating as published and says so.
Why is home field worth more here than in the NFL?
Because the fit says so. On FBS games since 2014 the home side has been worth about three points before any other factor, against under two in the NFL. Bigger crowds, longer trips and younger teams are the usual explanations; the dial only reports the number.