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Free NFL spread tool · Week 9

Which side covers this week?

Every NFL game this week, scored against the point spread — the points the sportsbook gives the underdog. Pick a game and the needle shows which side the numbers lean to and by how much. Open the dial to change what counts.

Sun, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET

LineCIN −3

CIN coversATL covers

Slight lean · Cincinnati Bengals

Slight lean to Cincinnati Bengals to cover: our margin says Bengals by 4.5, and the line is CIN −3.

Open this game in the Spread Dial →

Built from the results of every game since 2015. Its record is printed below, and it is close to a coin flip — the line is hard to beat.

This week's board

Week 9 · 14 games
  1. Sun, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ETBengals at FalconsCIN −3Slight lean CIN
  2. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETBroncos at PanthersDEN −2.5Slight lean DEN
  3. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETCowboys at ColtsDAL −4.5Lean IND
  4. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETJets at ChiefsKC −9.5Coin flip
  5. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETLions at DolphinsDET −6.5Slight lean MIA
  6. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETBrowns at SaintsNO −3Lean NO
  7. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETGiants at EaglesNYG −3Coin flip
  8. Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETRams at CommandersLA −4.5Coin flip
  9. Sun, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ETTexans at ChargersHOU −6Coin flip
  10. Sun, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ETRaiders at 49ersSF −10Slight lean SF
  11. Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETPackers at PatriotsNE −3Coin flip
  12. Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ETCardinals at SeahawksSEA −8.5Lean SEA
  13. Sun, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ETBuccaneers at BearsCHI −6Slight lean TB
  14. Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ETBills at VikingsBUF −3Slight lean MIN

Lines: median of US sportsbooks via The Odds API, one snapshot a day. Needle: our margin minus the line, in points, at the fitted weights.

What moves the needle

  1. Team strength — a power rating updated after every game+0.0256 pts per Elo points ahead
  2. Recent form — average points margin over the last four games+0.10 pts per points of margin, last 4 games
  3. Rest — days since each team last played+0.25 pts per days of rest ahead
  4. Cover trend — how often each team covered in its last six games−1.44 pts per cover rate, last 6 games
  5. Home field — playing in your own stadium+1.80 pts at home
  6. Play efficiency — how much each play moved the offense's expected points, last sixteen games+0.07 pts per net EPA per 100 plays
  7. QB change — a team starting someone other than its usual quarterback−2.66 pts when the starter isn't the usual one

Seven numbers, each multiplied by a weight the data fitted, added up. The weights are refit each time the page rebuilds and printed as they are — cover trend comes out negative, so that is the sign it keeps.

How often it's been right

Week by week →

49.5%

1,391–1,421–71 against the closing line, 2016–2026, each season scored with weights fitted only on the seasons before it. Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.4%.

That is a coin flip, and we print it anyway: the line already knows most of what public numbers know, so a lean is a second opinion, not a pick.

Scored on the games the weights were fitted on, the same formula goes 51.2%, which flatters it. The Spread Dial shows the record season by season, and the back-test for any weights you set.

This season through week 8: 57–58–6 against the spread, 54–67–0 on totals. See every game graded, week by week →

The tools

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Informational only. This site computes a lean from public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here. If you bet, do it legally and within your means.

Results through 2026 week 9 (last game 2026-11-05). Game data: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.