Guides

What −3.5 and +3.5 mean, what counts as a cover or a push, why 3 and 7 matter, and how far real games land from the line.

About two points since 2015 — and the betting line already knows it. Season-by-season home margins against the closing line, 2015–2025.

The closing line is a hard number to beat. What 52.38% means, why an honest back-test sits near 50%, and what a lean is still good for.

Teams off a bye covered 160-158-8 across 326 NFL games from 2015 to 2025. What the closing line already priced in, and what extra rest does not show.

What a total of 45.5 means, how the over and under are graded, and how often NFL games went over the closing total each season since 2015.

Games under a roof score about three points more than outdoor games. The line prices most of that — here is what is left, 2015–2025.

Division games and cold games score less, and the line already says so. Strong wind is the one case where the under kept winning — and why the Totals Dial still leaves it out.

How a record against the spread is counted, why pushes drop out, and how wide a record chance alone produces over 185 games.

A team's cover rate one season tells you almost nothing about the next: the correlation across 320 back-to-back seasons is −0.02.

Underdogs covered 51.6% of lined games from 2015 to 2025 and road underdogs 52.2% — close to, but not past, the 52.38% break-even.

Pushes land on 75 of 3,028 NFL spread-graded games from 2015 to 2025. How a push is graded, why lines of 3 and 7 matter, and how it shows in a weekly record.

Home teams covered between 43.8% and 51.8% in a single NFL season from 2015 to 2025. What that swing says about reading a short ATS record.

What the minus and plus mean, why college lines run so much bigger than NFL ones, and how far FBS results land from the line: 12.3 points on average, 2013–2025.

About 4.3 points a game from 2013 to 2025, more than twice the NFL's, and the line already charges 4.6 for it. Season by season, including 2020.

Favorites of 28 points or more won 98.6% of their games from 2013 to 2025 and covered 51.1%. Winning is the easy part; the spread is a coin flip at every size.