What a Push Is and How Often NFL Games Land on the Line

A push is a game that finishes exactly on the line. The favorite wins by the spread, or the two teams score exactly the total, and the result counts as neither a cover nor a miss. In the 2015–2025 NFL seasons it happened to 75 of 3,028 spread-graded games, according to nflverse's schedule file, and it is the reason a record is written with three numbers instead of two.

What counts as a push

A half-point line cannot push. A spread of -2.5 or a total of 45.5 always has a winner, because no final score lands on a half point. Whole-number lines can. A favorite laying 3 that wins by exactly 3 has neither covered nor failed to cover; the same goes for an over/under of 44 when the teams combine for 44.

That third outcome is why the weekly grades on the NFL Weekly Record read W–L–P. On that page a push is a final margin or combined score exactly on the line, and it counts for neither side.

Why 3 and 7 are the numbers that matter

NFL scores come in clumps, and the clumps are 3 and 7. From the 2015 through 2025 seasons, nflverse's games file shows 14.8% of games decided by exactly 3 points and 8.7% decided by exactly 7. A line that sits on one of those numbers is a line the result can land on.

Closing line	Games, 2015–2025	Landed on the line
Exactly 3	433	44
Exactly 7	172	11

Source: nflverse games.csv, regular season and playoffs, games with a closing line.

Lines are not the only place pushes show up. Across the same seasons the over/under record for all games was 1465-1535-28: twenty-eight totals landed exactly on the number.

A worked example: three seasons of home teams

The home-team against-the-spread records in nflverse's closing lines show how uneven pushes are from year to year.

Season	Home ATS record (W-L-P)	Games
2015	117-136-10	263
2020	131-134-0	265
2025	140-136-1	277

In 2015 ten games pushed. In 2020 none did. The percentage most sites quote leaves pushes out of the division, so the 2015 rate is the 117 wins out of the 253 games that had a winner, which the file lists as 46.2%.

How this connects to break-even

The break-even reference for a spread priced at -110 is 52.38%. The Weekly Record's percentages leave pushes out, so a pushed game is set aside rather than scored as half a win. Folding pushes into the loss column would understate a record, and folding them into the win column would flatter it.

What this cannot tell you

A handful of pushes does not say anything about a team or a model. The table shows that results landed on a line of 3 in 44 of 433 games; it does not say which side of any line a result will fall. Nothing here suggests a side to take. The counts describe closed seasons, they do not predict any coming game, and a push in the record is only the schedule file's note that a game finished on the number.

Where to see it on real games

The NFL Weekly Record grades the Spread Dial's and Totals Dial's lean on every game against the closing line, one week at a time, and shows each week's wins, losses and pushes. Every game counts, and each week is scored on formulas fitted only on earlier games. The numbers come from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0).

Last reviewed: October 2026. Informational only, not betting advice.