NFL Totals Dial

How it works

We start every game at the league-average total and move it by five numbers about the pair of teams playing. Each number is measured against an ordinary game, multiplied by a fitted coefficient and the weight you set, and added on. That sum is our expected total. The edge is that total minus the posted line; positive leans over.

Our total = 45.68
+ w₁ × +0.5898 × (season pace − 45.6)   (avg total, last 16 games)
+ w₂ × +0.1377 × (recent pace − 45.6)   (avg total, last 4 games)
+ w₃ × +2.5147 × (roof − 0.28)           (1 indoors, 0 outdoors)
+ w₄ × +0.4861 × (strength − 0.20)       (both Elos, hundreds over 3000)
+ w₅ × −1.0047 × (division − 0.35)       (1 if same division)

Edge       = our total − the posted total (positive leans over)
Hit chance = how often past games with an edge that size went its way

The hit chance is the record, not a bell-curve reading of the edge: each game shows how often games with an edge its size went the formula's way in the back-test, at the settings you have chosen. Bigger edges have not hit much more often than small ones, so a normal curve would overstate it.

The coefficients are an ordinary least-squares fit of actual final totals on those five factors, each centered on its average, over every regular-season and playoff game from 2015 through 2026 (3,150 games), refit each time the page regenerates. Centering means the intercept is exactly the average total over those games, and each slider (w) scales how far one factor can move a game away from it: 1.0× is the fit, 0× removes the factor.

The five factors

• Season pace. The average total points (both teams' scores added up) in each team's last sixteen games, whichever season they fell in, averaged across the two teams playing.
• Recent pace. The same figure over each team's last four games — the short-run read on how their games have been going.
• Roof. 1 when the game is in a dome or under a closed retractable roof, 0 outdoors. nflverse leaves the roof blank on unplayed games at retractable stadiums; those count as indoor, since from 2015 on they have played closed more than three games in four.
• Combined strength. The two teams' Elo ratings added up, in hundreds of points above the league average of 3,000 — the same rating the Spread Dial keeps, updated after every game since 1999.
• Division game. 1 when the two teams share a division, 0 otherwise. Straight from the schedule file.

Four other candidates were fitted and left out because their coefficients were indistinguishable from zero on this data: combined rest days, each team's recent over/under record, cold-month outdoor games (once the roof is counted) and the gap between the two teams' ratings. They are listed in the tool's spec so nobody re-tries them without new data.

What the back-test is, and isn't

The back-test replays the same fitted games with the factors exactly as they stood before each kickoff (no look-ahead) and counts how often the side the formula leaned to — over or under — was right against nflverse's closing total. It is in-sample: the coefficients were fitted on those same games, so it flatters the default settings slightly, and moving a dial to push the rate up is curve-fitting. One more honest number: on those games the closing total itself is closer to the final score than this formula is (a typical miss of 13.21 points against about 13.6). The formula is shown for what it tells you about a game, not because it out-guesses the board.

What it leaves out

• Injuries, quarterback changes, live weather, pace of play and play counts. None are in the schedule file, so none are in the score. The roof is the only weather the tool can see before kickoff.
• Line movement. The total here is a snapshot at the day's refresh; a book's number when you look may differ.
• Anything non-linear. Five factors added to an average is the whole model. That is deliberate: every point in the result can be traced to one row of the table under each game.

Sources

• nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0 — final scores, closing totals, roof and divisional flags for every game since 1999.
• FiveThirtyEight, “How our NFL predictions work” (archived copy, January 2024; the site closed in 2025) — the Elo update rule behind the combined-strength factor, shared with the Spread Dial.
• The Odds API — current US sportsbook totals, when the live connection is on.

Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.