New England Patriots against the spread

The Patriots have covered the spread 107 times and missed 86 times since 2015, with 7 pushes (55.4%), inside the range a coin flip produces over that many games.

Informational only. These are past results against public closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.

ATS since 2015: 107–86–7; 55.4% covered
This season ATS: 1–0–1; 100.0% covered
Over/under since 2015: 95–104–1; 47.7% overs
Straight up since 2015: 122–78–0; wins–losses–ties
Power rank: 3 of 32; Elo 1611

This week

Week 3: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Spread Dial · JAX −3

Slight lean: Patriots

Edge −1.4 pts at the fitted weights

Totals Dial · O/U 45.5

Slight lean: under

Edge −1.5 pts at the fitted weights

Open either dial to see how each lean was built, or re-weight the factors yourself.

2026 game by game

Week	Opponent	Score	Line	Spread	Total
1	at Seahawks	L 10–13	+3.0	Push	Under 44.5
2	vs Steelers	W 20–3	−4.5	Covered by 12.5	Under 41.5

Splits since 2015

Situation	ATS (W–L–P)	Cover %
At home	55–44–4	55.6%
On the road	52–42–3	55.3%
As the favorite	80–54–4	59.7%
As the underdog	27–32–3	45.8%
Off a bye	11–8–0	57.9%
Playoffs	10–7–0	58.8%

Small splits swing hard: a situation with 20 games can land at 35% or 65% on luck alone.

Season by season

Season	Straight up	ATS	Cover %	O/U	Avg margin	Avg vs line
2026	1–1–0	1–0–1	100.0%	0–2–0	+7.0	+6.3
2025	17–4–0	14–7–0	66.7%	12–9–0	+8.7	+5.3
2024	4–13–0	7–9–1	43.8%	11–6–0	−7.5	−1.5
2023	4–13–0	5–11–1	31.3%	7–10–0	−7.6	−4.2
2022	8–9–0	7–9–1	43.8%	8–9–0	+1.0	+1.2
2021	10–8–0	10–8–0	55.6%	10–8–0	+7.2	+4.3
2020	7–9–0	7–9–0	43.8%	5–10–1	−1.7	−1.9
2019	12–5–0	8–8–1	50.0%	7–10–0	+11.1	+1.6
2018	14–5–0	12–7–0	63.2%	7–12–0	+7.4	+0.9
2017	15–4–0	12–7–0	63.2%	9–10–0	+9.4	+0.9
2016	17–2–0	16–3–0	84.2%	9–10–0	+12.3	+5.5
2015	13–5–0	8–8–2	50.0%	10–8–0	+8.6	+1.4

Avg vs line: how many points per game the team finished above (+) or below (−) the closing spread.

What this record means

Every game since 2015 with a posted closing line in nflverse's schedule file counts: the team covers when its final margin beats the line, misses when it falls short, and pushes when it lands on it. Across all 32 teams, records like this one vary about as much as they would if every game were a coin flip, and a team's cover rate one season has had essentially no relationship with the next. So this page describes what happened; it does not predict what comes next. The full method and the chance numbers are on the ATS Records page.

Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.

Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or the New England Patriots.

Related tools

NFL Spread Dial

Every game this week, scored against the point spread from six public factors. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.

Open tool →NFL Totals Dial

Every game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.

Open tool →