Informational only. This page computes a lean from public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here. If you bet, do it legally and within your means.
How often these settings have been right
At these settings the formula has picked the covering side 50.0% of the time since 2015, below the 52.4% a bettor needs to break even at standard −110 pricing.
| When the edge is | Record (W–L–P) | Cover rate |
|---|
| any size | 1492–1492–76 | 50.0% |
| 1+ points | 1090–1078–56 | 50.3% |
| 3+ points | 469–438–23 | 51.7% |
| 5+ points | 152–142–6 | 51.7% |
Back-test is in-sample: every game from 2015 through 2026 (3,060 games) scored with the factors as they stood before kickoff, against nflverse's closing line. Tuning the dials to raise this number is fitting the past, not predicting the future.
Week 3, 2026 season
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Thu, Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET
LineGB −5.5
Coin flip · Green Bay Packers
Coin flip: our margin (Packers by 6.4) is within a point of the line (GB −5.5), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
- Our margin
- Packers by 6.4
- Edge vs. line
- +0.9 pts
- Cover chance
- 53%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +104 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +3.4 |
| Recent form | +0.50 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +0.1 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −0.50 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +1.0 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +6.4 |
| The line, as a home margin | +5.5 |
| Edge | +0.9 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineBUF −7.5
Slight lean · Buffalo Bills
Slight lean to Buffalo Bills to cover: our margin says Bills by 10.2, and the line is BUF −7.5.
- Our margin
- Bills by 10.2
- Edge vs. line
- +2.7 pts
- Cover chance
- 58%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +194 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +6.4 |
| Recent form | +17.00 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +2.4 |
| Rest edge | +3.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | +0.6 |
| Cover trend | +0.50 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −1.0 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +10.2 |
| The line, as a home margin | +7.5 |
| Edge | +2.7 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineCAR −3
Lean · Cleveland Browns
Lean to Cleveland Browns to cover: our margin says Browns by 0.6, and the line is CAR −3.
- Our margin
- Browns by 0.6
- Edge vs. line
- +3.6 pts
- Cover chance
- 61%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −21 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −0.7 |
| Recent form | −3.75 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −0.5 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | 0.00 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | 0.0 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +0.6 |
| The line, as a home margin | −3.0 |
| Edge | +3.6 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineDET −6.5
Slight lean · Detroit Lions
Slight lean to Detroit Lions to cover: our margin says Lions by 9.2, and the line is DET −6.5.
- Our margin
- Lions by 9.2
- Edge vs. line
- +2.7 pts
- Cover chance
- 58%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +161 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +5.3 |
| Recent form | +7.50 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +1.1 |
| Rest edge | +3.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | +0.6 |
| Cover trend | −0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +9.2 |
| The line, as a home margin | +6.5 |
| Edge | +2.7 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineHOU −3
Coin flip · Houston Texans
Coin flip: our margin (Texans by 3.2) is within a point of the line (HOU −3), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
- Our margin
- Texans by 3.2
- Edge vs. line
- −0.2 pts
- Cover chance
- 51%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −112 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −3.7 |
| Recent form | −7.00 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −1.0 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | +0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −3.2 |
| The line, as a home margin | −3.0 |
| Edge | −0.2 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineJAX −3
Slight lean · New England Patriots
Slight lean to New England Patriots to cover: our margin says Jaguars by 2.0, and the line is JAX −3.
- Our margin
- Jaguars by 2.0
- Edge vs. line
- −1.0 pts
- Cover chance
- 53%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −42 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −1.4 |
| Recent form | +11.75 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +1.6 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | +0.08 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.2 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +2.0 |
| The line, as a home margin | +3.0 |
| Edge | −1.0 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineKC −11.5
Strong lean · Miami Dolphins
Strong lean to Miami Dolphins to cover: our margin says Chiefs by 4.5, and the line is KC −11.5.
- Our margin
- Chiefs by 4.5
- Edge vs. line
- +7.0 pts
- Cover chance
- 71%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −123 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −4.1 |
| Recent form | −19.00 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −2.7 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −4.5 |
| The line, as a home margin | −11.5 |
| Edge | +7.0 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineNYG −3
Lean · New York Giants
Lean to New York Giants to cover: our margin says Giants by 7.9, and the line is NYG −3.
- Our margin
- Giants by 7.9
- Edge vs. line
- +4.9 pts
- Cover chance
- 65%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +109 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +3.6 |
| Recent form | +21.50 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +3.0 |
| Rest edge | −1.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | −0.2 |
| Cover trend | +0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +7.9 |
| The line, as a home margin | +3.0 |
| Edge | +4.9 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineCIN −3.5
Slight lean · Pittsburgh Steelers
Slight lean to Pittsburgh Steelers to cover: our margin says Bengals by 1.3, and the line is CIN −3.5.
- Our margin
- Bengals by 1.3
- Edge vs. line
- +2.2 pts
- Cover chance
- 57%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −29 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −1.0 |
| Recent form | −18.25 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −2.6 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −1.3 |
| The line, as a home margin | −3.5 |
| Edge | +2.2 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
LineSEA −7
Slight lean · Seattle Seahawks
Slight lean to Seattle Seahawks to cover: our margin says Seahawks by 8.8, and the line is SEA −7.
- Our margin
- Seahawks by 8.8
- Edge vs. line
- −1.8 pts
- Cover chance
- 56%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −268 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −8.8 |
| Recent form | −16.50 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −2.3 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −0.25 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +0.5 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −8.8 |
| The line, as a home margin | −7.0 |
| Edge | −1.8 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
LineSF −8.5
Coin flip · San Francisco 49ers
Coin flip: our margin (49ers by 9.1) is within a point of the line (SF −8.5), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
- Our margin
- 49ers by 9.1
- Edge vs. line
- +0.6 pts
- Cover chance
- 52%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +186 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +6.1 |
| Recent form | +15.75 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +2.2 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | +0.50 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −1.0 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +9.1 |
| The line, as a home margin | +8.5 |
| Edge | +0.6 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
LineMIN −1.5
Slight lean · Minnesota Vikings
Slight lean to Minnesota Vikings to cover: our margin says Vikings by 3.3, and the line is MIN −1.5.
- Our margin
- Vikings by 3.3
- Edge vs. line
- −1.8 pts
- Cover chance
- 56%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −154 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −5.1 |
| Recent form | −15.00 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −2.1 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −1.00 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +2.0 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −3.3 |
| The line, as a home margin | −1.5 |
| Edge | −1.8 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys · neutral site
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
LineBAL −3.5
Coin flip · Dallas Cowboys
Coin flip: our margin (Ravens by 2.7) is within a point of the line (BAL −3.5), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
- Our margin
- Ravens by 2.7
- Edge vs. line
- +0.8 pts
- Cover chance
- 52%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −74 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −2.4 |
| Recent form | −6.75 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −0.9 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | −0.33 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | +0.7 |
| Home field | 0.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | 0.0 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | −2.7 |
| The line, as a home margin | −3.5 |
| Edge | +0.8 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
LineNO −3
Coin flip · New Orleans Saints
Coin flip: our margin (Saints by 3.0) is within a point of the line (NO −3), so the numbers don't separate the two sides.
- Our margin
- Saints by 3.0
- Edge vs. line
- +0.0 pts
- Cover chance
- 50%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +47 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +1.6 |
| Recent form | +2.00 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +0.3 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | +0.33 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.7 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +3.0 |
| The line, as a home margin | +3.0 |
| Edge | +0.0 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Sun, Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET
LineLA −2.5
Lean · Denver Broncos
Lean to Denver Broncos to cover: our margin says Broncos by 0.9, and the line is LA −2.5.
- Our margin
- Broncos by 0.9
- Edge vs. line
- +3.4 pts
- Cover chance
- 60%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | +0 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | +0.0 |
| Recent form | −3.75 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | −0.5 |
| Rest edge | +1.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | +0.2 |
| Cover trend | +0.33 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.7 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +0.9 |
| The line, as a home margin | −2.5 |
| Edge | +3.4 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Mon, Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET
LinePHI −4.5
Strong lean · Chicago Bears
Strong lean to Chicago Bears to cover: our margin says Bears by 1.1, and the line is PHI −4.5.
- Our margin
- Bears by 1.1
- Edge vs. line
- +5.6 pts
- Cover chance
- 67%
How this was scored
| Factor | Home minus away | Weight × fit | Points |
|---|
| Power rating | −36 | 1.00 × +0.0329 | −1.2 |
| Recent form | +5.50 | 1.00 × +0.1401 | +0.8 |
| Rest edge | 0.00 | 1.00 × +0.2109 | 0.0 |
| Cover trend | +0.17 | 1.00 × −2.0364 | −0.3 |
| Home field | +1.00 | 1.00 × +1.8453 | +1.8 |
| Our margin (home minus away) | +1.1 |
| The line, as a home margin | −4.5 |
| Edge | +5.6 |
Line source: median of 9 US sportsbooks via The Odds API, updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 17:27:47 GMT. Cover chance is Φ(|edge| ÷ 12.73), where 12.73 is the standard deviation of final margin minus closing line since 2015.
Results through 2026 week 2 (last game 2026-09-21). Lines: The Odds API, refreshed with the page every six hours.
How it works
For each game we compute five numbers about the home team relative to the away team, multiply each by a fitted coefficient and the weight you set, and add them up. That sum is our expected home margin. The edge is that margin minus the line.
Our margin (home − away) =
w₁ × +0.0329 × Elo difference
+ w₂ × +0.1401 × form difference (avg margin, last 4 games)
+ w₃ × +0.2109 × rest difference (days)
+ w₄ × −2.0364 × cover-rate difference (last 6 games)
+ w₅ × +1.8453 × home game (1, or 0 at a neutral site)
Edge = our margin − the line (written as a home margin)
Cover chance = Φ( |edge| ÷ 12.73 ) Φ = standard normal CDF
The coefficients are an ordinary least-squares fit of actual final margins on those five factors over every regular-season and playoff game from 2015 through 2026 (3,060 games), refit each time the page regenerates. Each slider (w) scales one coefficient: 1.0× is the fit, 0× removes the factor.
The five factors
- Power rating. Our own Elo rating for each team, updated after every game since 1999 using FiveThirtyEight's published NFL method (K = 20, margin-of-victory multiplier, one-third reversion to the mean each new season).
- Recent form. Each team's average points margin over its last four games, whichever season they fell in.
- Rest edge. Days since each team last played, straight from the schedule. A team off a bye has 14; a team off a Thursday game has 10.
- Cover trend. The share of its last six games each team covered the closing spread (a push counts one half).
- Home field. 1 when the home team is at its own stadium, 0 at a neutral site such as London or Melbourne.
What the back-test is, and isn't
The back-test replays the same fitted games with the factors exactly as they stood before each kickoff (no look-ahead) and counts how often the side the formula leaned to covered nflverse's closing line. It is in-sample: the coefficients were fitted on those same games, so it flatters the default settings slightly, and moving a dial to push the rate up is curve-fitting. It is shown because a tool that computes a lean owes you its record.
What it leaves out
- Injuries, quarterback changes, weather and coaching changes. None of these are in the schedule file, so none are in the score.
- Line movement. The line here is a snapshot at the last refresh; a book's number when you look may differ.
- Anything non-linear. Five factors, added up, is the whole model. That is deliberate: every point in the result can be traced to one row of the table under each game.
Sources
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the back-test only come out around 50%?
Because the closing line already prices in almost everything public. A formula built only from past scores, rest days and home field lands near a coin flip against it — and any tool claiming much better on a simple public formula is either overfitting or not showing its record. The dial's job is to show where your weighting disagrees with the line and how that disagreement has fared, not to beat the market.
What does the edge mean?
Edge is our margin minus the line, both written as the home team's margin. A +2.0 edge means our numbers expect the home side to do two points better than the spread asks; −2.0 means the away side. The needle on the dial is that number, from −10 to +10.
Where does the line come from?
By default the posted line in nflverse's schedule file. When the site's Odds API connection is on, it is the median of the point spreads quoted by US sportsbooks at the last refresh, and each game says so. Lines move, so the number here can differ from what a book shows right now.
Why does the cover-trend factor count against a team?
The least-squares fit gives it a negative coefficient: teams on a hot run against the spread have, on average, done slightly worse than the line in their next game since 2015. That is what the data says, so that is the sign the tool uses. If you believe streaks carry, set the dial to zero rather than flipping the sign — the tool never hides a fitted number.