Denver Broncos against the spread
The Broncos have covered the spread 95 times and missed 96 times since 2015, with 4 pushes (49.7%), about what a coin flip would produce over that many games.
Informational only. These are past results against public closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
- ATS since 2015
- 95–96–4
- 49.7% covered
- This season ATS
- 6–2–0
- 75.0% covered
- Over/under since 2015
- 80–113–2
- 41.5% overs
- Straight up since 2015
- 98–97–0
- wins–losses–ties
- Power rank
- 3 of 32
- Elo 1637
This week
Week 9: Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers · Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Edge −1.6 pts at the fitted weights
Edge +0.6 pts at the fitted weights
Open either dial to see how each lean was built, or re-weight the factors yourself.
2026 game by game
| Week | Opponent | Score | Line | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Chiefs | L 10–31 | +2.5 | Missed by 18.5 | Under 42.5 |
| 2 | vs Jaguars | W 20–13 | −2.5 | Covered by 4.5 | Under 45.5 |
| 3 | vs Rams | W 30–26 | −1.5 | Covered by 2.5 | Over 43.5 |
| 4 | at 49ers | L 14–24 | +3.0 | Missed by 7 | Under 48.5 |
| 5 | at Chargers | W 23–17 | −3.5 | Covered by 2.5 | Under 42.5 |
| 6 | vs Seahawks | W 17–14 | +2.5 | Covered by 5.5 | Under 40.5 |
| 7 | at Cardinals | W 30–16 | −4.5 | Covered by 9.5 | Over 44.5 |
| 8 | vs Chiefs | W 28–24 | −1.5 | Covered by 2.5 | Over 41.5 |
Splits since 2015
| Situation | ATS (W–L–P) | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| At home | 53–44–3 | 54.6% |
| On the road | 42–52–1 | 44.7% |
| As the favorite | 42–53–4 | 44.2% |
| As the underdog | 53–43–0 | 55.2% |
| Off a bye | 9–4–1 | 69.2% |
| Playoffs | 4–1–1 | 80.0% |
Small splits swing hard: a situation with 20 games can land at 35% or 65% on luck alone.
Season by season
| Season | Straight up | ATS | Cover % | O/U | Avg margin | Avg vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2–0 | 6–2–0 | 75.0% | 3–5–0 | +0.9 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 15–4–0 | 9–10–0 | 47.4% | 8–11–0 | +4.7 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 10–8–0 | 12–6–0 | 66.7% | 11–7–0 | +5.0 | +5.4 |
| 2023 | 8–9–0 | 6–10–1 | 37.5% | 8–9–0 | −3.3 | −2.2 |
| 2022 | 5–12–0 | 7–10–0 | 41.2% | 6–11–0 | −4.2 | −3.6 |
| 2021 | 7–10–0 | 8–9–0 | 47.1% | 5–12–0 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 5–11–0 | 9–7–0 | 56.3% | 8–8–0 | −7.7 | −2.1 |
| 2019 | 7–9–0 | 9–7–0 | 56.3% | 7–9–0 | −2.1 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 6–10–0 | 6–9–1 | 40.0% | 3–12–1 | −1.3 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 5–11–0 | 4–11–1 | 26.7% | 8–8–0 | −5.8 | −6.0 |
| 2016 | 9–7–0 | 9–7–0 | 56.3% | 7–9–0 | +2.3 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 15–4–0 | 10–8–1 | 55.6% | 6–12–1 | +4.3 | +2.1 |
Avg vs line: how many points per game the team finished above (+) or below (−) the closing spread.
What this record means
Every game since 2015 with a posted closing line in nflverse's schedule file counts: the team covers when its final margin beats the line, misses when it falls short, and pushes when it lands on it. Across all 32 teams, records like this one vary about as much as they would if every game were a coin flip, and a team's cover rate one season has had essentially no relationship with the next. So this page describes what happened; it does not predict what comes next. The full method and the chance numbers are on the ATS Records page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or the Denver Broncos.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Weekly RecordThe Spread Dial's and Totals Dial's lean on every game, graded each week against the closing spread and total once the games are played — every game counted, each week on a fit of earlier games only.
Open tool →