Buffalo Bills against the spread

The Bills have covered the spread 104 times and missed 92 times since 2015, with 7 pushes (53.1%), about what a coin flip would produce over that many games.

Informational only. These are past results against public closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.

ATS since 2015: 104–92–7; 53.1% covered
This season ATS: 5–2–0; 71.4% covered
Over/under since 2015: 104–96–3; 52.0% overs
Straight up since 2015: 127–76–0; wins–losses–ties
Power rank: 1 of 32; Elo 1669

This week

Week 9: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings · Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET

Spread Dial · BUF −3

Slight lean: Vikings

Edge +2.9 pts at the fitted weights

Totals Dial · O/U 44

Lean: over

Edge +3.8 pts at the fitted weights

Open either dial to see how each lean was built, or re-weight the factors yourself.

2026 game by game

Week	Opponent	Score	Line	Spread	Total
1	at Texans	W 36–31	−1.5	Covered by 3.5	Over 44.5
2	vs Lions	W 41–31	−5.5	Covered by 4.5	Over 54.5
3	vs Chargers	W 24–16	−7.0	Covered by 1	Under 50.5
4	vs Patriots	L 26–29	−7.0	Missed by 10	Over 49.5
5	at Rams	W 37–34	+3.5	Covered by 6.5	Over 55.5
6	at Raiders	W 33–30	−5.5	Missed by 2.5	Over 53.5
8	vs Ravens	W 36–10	−3.0	Covered by 23	Under 54.5

Splits since 2015

Situation	ATS (W–L–P)	Cover %
At home	54–47–3	53.5%
On the road	50–45–4	52.6%
As the favorite	66–59–4	52.8%
As the underdog	38–33–3	53.5%
Off a bye	8–2–2	80.0%
Playoffs	7–9–0	43.8%

Small splits swing hard: a situation with 20 games can land at 35% or 65% on luck alone.

Season by season

Season	Straight up	ATS	Cover %	O/U	Avg margin	Avg vs line
2026	6–1–0	5–2–0	71.4%	5–2–0	+7.4	+3.7
2025	13–6–0	9–10–0	47.4%	10–9–0	+6.1	+0.7
2024	15–5–0	12–8–0	60.0%	13–6–1	+9.0	+5.5
2023	12–7–0	8–11–0	42.1%	8–11–0	+7.9	+2.1
2022	14–4–0	8–9–1	47.1%	7–11–0	+8.6	+1.0
2021	12–7–0	10–7–2	58.8%	10–9–0	+11.5	+4.0
2020	15–4–0	12–7–0	63.2%	12–5–2	+6.8	+4.6
2019	10–7–0	9–6–2	60.0%	4–13–0	+3.1	+2.8
2018	6–10–0	7–9–0	43.8%	7–9–0	−6.6	−0.2
2017	9–8–0	10–6–1	62.5%	8–9–0	−3.8	−1.4
2016	7–9–0	6–10–0	37.5%	12–4–0	+1.3	+0.6
2015	8–8–0	8–7–1	53.3%	8–8–0	+1.3	+1.0

Avg vs line: how many points per game the team finished above (+) or below (−) the closing spread.

What this record means

Every game since 2015 with a posted closing line in nflverse's schedule file counts: the team covers when its final margin beats the line, misses when it falls short, and pushes when it lands on it. Across all 32 teams, records like this one vary about as much as they would if every game were a coin flip, and a team's cover rate one season has had essentially no relationship with the next. So this page describes what happened; it does not predict what comes next. The full method and the chance numbers are on the ATS Records page.

Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.

Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or the Buffalo Bills.

Related tools

NFL Spread Dial

Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.

Open tool →NFL Totals Dial

Every game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.

Open tool →NFL Weekly Record

The Spread Dial's and Totals Dial's lean on every game, graded each week against the closing spread and total once the games are played — every game counted, each week on a fit of earlier games only.

Open tool →