Guides · NFL Spread Dial
How Much Is NFL Home-Field Advantage Worth?
About two points since 2015 — and the betting line already knows it. Season-by-season home margins against the closing line, 2015–2025.
Informational only. This guide describes public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Home teams have won by about 1.9 points a game since 2015, and the betting line has made them about 1.9-point favorites on average. Home field is real, but it is already in the number: home teams covered 48.9% of the time.
The short answer: about two points
Across 2,967 NFL games played at one team's home stadium from 2015 through 2025, the home team won by 1.92 points on average and won outright 55.0% of the time. Over the same games the closing spread made the home team a 1.90-point favorite on average. The market and the results agree to within a few hundredths of a point.
The long-standing rule of thumb is three points for home field. The data since 2015 does not support three; it supports two, and the lines have moved to match.
Season by season
| Season | Avg home margin | Avg home line | Home win % | Home ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 54.0% | 117-136-10 | 46.2% |
| 2016 | 3.06 | 2.34 | 58.6% | 129-128-5 | 50.2% |
| 2017 | 2.64 | 2.23 | 57.5% | 131-122-8 | 51.8% |
| 2018 | 2.32 | 2.45 | 60.2% | 122-132-9 | 48.0% |
| 2019 | 0.09 | 1.95 | 52.3% | 110-141-10 | 43.8% |
| 2020 | 0.17 | 1.17 | 50.4% | 131-134-0 | 49.4% |
| 2021 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 51.4% | 132-145-4 | 47.7% |
| 2022 | 2.25 | 1.82 | 57.5% | 132-135-10 | 49.4% |
| 2023 | 2.95 | 1.82 | 56.6% | 132-133-14 | 49.8% |
| 2024 | 2.03 | 1.64 | 53.6% | 139-135-4 | 50.7% |
| 2025 | 2.20 | 1.52 | 53.6% | 140-136-1 | 50.7% |
| 2015–2025 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 55.0% | 1415-1477-75 | 48.9% |
Games at a team's home stadium only; neutral-site games (London, Germany, Super Bowls) are left out. Margin and line are from the home team's side: positive means home favored or home won.
Two seasons stand out. In 2020, played almost entirely without fans, home teams won by just 0.17 points on average and the lines dropped to 1.17. But in 2019, with full stadiums, home teams won by only 0.09. Crowds are probably part of home field, but one season of about 260 games is a small sample for a two-point effect, and a flat year can happen with or without them.
Home teams against the spread: 48.9%
Because the line already gives home teams their two points, betting on home teams blindly has not worked: they went 1415–1477–75 against the spread, a 48.9% cover rate. That is 1.1 points under 50%, which over 2,892 decided games is about 1.2 standard deviations: inside the range chance produces, not a reliable fade either.
How the tools use home field
- The power rating. OddsDial's Elo rating follows FiveThirtyEight's published method, which adds 48 Elo points to the home side when it computes the expected result. At that method's scale, 48 Elo points is roughly two points on the field.
- The Spread Dial's home factor. The NFL Spread Dial also fits home field as its own factor, worth 1.84 points in its September 2026 fit. It refits every six hours and prints the current value on the page; neutral-site games get zero.
- Team splits. Each team's page under NFL ATS Records shows its home and road cover rates. With about 90 games in each half, a single team's home split carries about five points of chance swing either way (one standard deviation).
Sources
- nflverse, NFL schedules and results (games.csv) — CC-BY 4.0; final scores, closing spreads and totals, rest days, roof, kickoff weather
- FiveThirtyEight, “How Our NFL Predictions Work” (archived) — the Elo method behind the power rating, including its 48-point home adjustment
Figures are computed from nflverse's games file (CC-BY 4.0) over the 2015–2025 seasons by scripts/guide-measurements.mjs, so they do not move as new games are played. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.