Guides · NFL Totals Dial
Do Wind, Cold and Division Games Push NFL Totals Under?
Division games and cold games score less, and the line already says so. Strong wind is the one case where the under kept winning — and why the Totals Dial still leaves it out.
Informational only. This guide describes public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Division games and freezing games do score less, but the betting line already lowers their totals, so the under wins them about as often as any other game. Strong wind is the exception in 2015–2025: games with 15+ mph wind at kickoff went under 56% of the time, on a small sample.
The numbers, 2015–2025
| Games | Count | Avg points | Avg total | Over record | Over % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division games | 1,074 | 45.0 | 44.8 | 520-544-10 | 48.9% |
| Non-division games | 1,954 | 46.1 | 45.5 | 945-991-18 | 48.8% |
| Outdoors, kickoff 32°F or colder | 142 | 43.1 | 43.9 | 66-74-2 | 47.1% |
| Outdoors, kickoff wind 15 mph or more | 228 | 42.1 | 44.0 | 98-127-3 | 43.6% |
| All games | 3,028 | 45.7 | 45.3 | 1465-1535-28 | 48.8% |
Lined NFL games, regular season and playoffs. Temperature and wind are the kickoff readings recorded in nflverse's games file; those two rows count open-air stadiums only.
Division games: lower, and priced
Teams that meet twice a year know each other's schemes, and division games did score about a point less than other games (45.0 against 46.1). The market set their totals lower too (44.8 against 45.5), and the over hit 48.9% in division games against 48.8% in the rest. Once the line has moved, whatever keeps division games lower is gone from the result.
The NFL Totals Dial still includes a division factor, because it helps estimate the total itself: in its September 2026 fit a division game was worth −1.02 points, holding the teams' pace and strength equal. Estimating the total better and beating the line are different jobs.
Cold: lower, and priced
Outdoor games that kicked off at 32°F or colder averaged 43.1 points, and their totals closed at 43.9. The over went 66–74, 47.1%. With only 140 decided games, chance alone moves that rate by about four points either way, so this is not evidence the cold beats the line.
Wind: the one that stands out
Games with wind of 15 mph or more at kickoff averaged 42.1 points against totals that closed at 44.0, and the under won 127 times to the over's 98. That is an over rate of 43.6%, the largest gap in this guide, and about 1.9 standard deviations from a coin flip over 225 decided games.
Three cautions before reading much into it. The sample is small, 228 games in eleven seasons. The wind in the file is the reading at kickoff, which nobody knows for certain when a line is posted days earlier; forecasts move totals during the week, so part of the wind was already in the closing number (these totals closed 1.3 points below the league average). And a pattern you go looking for in weather data (15 mph rather than 12 or 20, say) is easier to find than one that holds.
Why the Totals Dial leaves weather out
The Totals Dial scores this week's games before they are played, and the public file has no temperature or wind for a game that has not kicked off. A factor that cannot be filled in on the slate cannot be scored, so the dial uses the one piece of weather it can know in advance: whether there is a roof (see do dome games go over). If the forecast for a game calls for strong wind, that is information the dial does not have.
Sources
- nflverse, NFL schedules and results (games.csv) — CC-BY 4.0; final scores, closing spreads and totals, rest days, roof, kickoff weather
Figures are computed from nflverse's games file (CC-BY 4.0) over the 2015–2025 seasons by scripts/guide-measurements.mjs, so they do not move as new games are played. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.