Guides · NFL Totals Dial
Do NFL Dome Games Go Over?
Games under a roof score about three points more than outdoor games. The line prices most of that — here is what is left, 2015–2025.
Informational only. This guide describes public game data; it is not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Not more often than the line expects. Games under a roof scored 47.8 points on average from 2015 to 2025, three more than outdoor games. But the closing totals were already set higher indoors, and the over hit 50.5% of the time: a coin flip.
Indoor games do score more
No wind, no rain, no frozen ball, a fast surface: it would be surprising if domes did not help offenses, and they do. Across 3,028 lined games from 2015 through 2025:
| Roof | Games | Avg points | Avg total | Over record | Over % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dome or closed roof | 855 | 47.8 | 46.5 | 429-420-6 | 50.5% |
| Outdoors or open roof | 2,173 | 44.8 | 44.8 | 1036-1115-22 | 48.2% |
Roof as recorded in nflverse's games file. Retractable-roof stadiums count as indoor when the roof was closed and outdoor when it was open.
Indoor games averaged 3.0 more points than outdoor games. The market knew: indoor totals closed 1.7 points higher on average (46.5 against 44.8).
So why isn't the over a lock indoors?
Two reasons. First, the line had already moved most of the way. Second, the leftover gap (indoor games averaging 1.3 points above their total) is the average, and totals are not graded on the average. A handful of indoor shootouts pull the average up without changing how often a typical dome game goes over. Counted game by game, indoor overs went 429–420, which is 50.5%, below the 52.38% needed to break even at −110.
Outdoor games are the mirror image: their average matched the line exactly (44.8), and they went under a bit more often than over, 48.2%. Over 2,151 decided games that is about 1.7 standard deviations from 50%, not quite outside what chance produces.
How the Totals Dial handles the roof
The NFL Totals Dial includes the roof as one of its five factors, fitted from the same games. In its September 2026 fit, a roof was worth +2.57 points to the expected total, holding the teams' scoring pace and strength equal. The page refits every six hours and prints the current value.
One practical wrinkle: before kickoff, nflverse leaves the roof blank for games at retractable-roof stadiums, because nobody knows yet whether it will be open. The dial counts those games as indoor, since those stadiums have played closed most of the time since 2015, and shows the roof value it used in each game's breakdown so you can check it.
Weather beyond the roof is a different story, covered in wind, cold and division games.
Sources
- nflverse, NFL schedules and results (games.csv) — CC-BY 4.0; final scores, closing spreads and totals, rest days, roof, kickoff weather
Figures are computed from nflverse's games file (CC-BY 4.0) over the 2015–2025 seasons by scripts/guide-measurements.mjs, so they do not move as new games are played. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.