Week 1, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 1 the Spread Dial's leans went 4–11–1 against the closing spread (26.7% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 7–9–0 against the closing total (43.8%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | SEA −3 | Seahawks by 4.7 | Seahawks · Slight lean | NE 10, SEA 13 | Push |
| 49ers at Rams | LA −3.5 | Rams by 4.9 | Rams · Slight lean | SF 27, LA 7 | Missed |
| Bears at Panthers | CHI −3 | Bears by 2.1 | Panthers · Coin flip | CHI 59, CAR 37 | Missed |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | CIN −3.5 | Bengals by 0.8 | Buccaneers · Slight lean | TB 27, CIN 33 | Missed |
| Saints at Lions | DET −7 | Lions by 5.2 | Saints · Slight lean | NO 30, DET 31 | Covered |
| Bills at Texans | BUF −1.5 | Texans by 2.0 | Texans · Lean | BUF 36, HOU 31 | Missed |
| Ravens at Colts | BAL −3 | Ravens by 1.7 | Colts · Slight lean | BAL 41, IND 23 | Missed |
| Browns at Jaguars | JAX −8.5 | Jaguars by 11.2 | Jaguars · Slight lean | CLE 10, JAX 34 | Covered |
| Falcons at Steelers | PIT −6.5 | Steelers by 4.4 | Falcons · Slight lean | ATL 13, PIT 20 | Missed |
| Jets at Titans | TEN −1.5 | Titans by 6.3 | Titans · Lean | NYJ 23, TEN 10 | Missed |
| Cardinals at Chargers | LAC −8.5 | Chargers by 7.2 | Cardinals · Slight lean | ARI 26, LAC 14 | Covered |
| Dolphins at Raiders | LV −3 | Dolphins by 2.5 | Dolphins · Strong lean | MIA 13, LV 27 | Missed |
| Packers at Vikings | MIN −1.5 | Vikings by 0.2 | Packers · Slight lean | GB 22, MIN 39 | Missed |
| Commanders at Eagles | PHI −6 | Eagles by 9.5 | Eagles · Lean | WAS 22, PHI 24 | Missed |
| Cowboys at Giants | DAL −3 | Giants by 2.5 | Giants · Strong lean | DAL 20, NYG 28 | Covered |
| Broncos at Chiefs | KC −2.5 | Broncos by 2.1 | Broncos · Lean | DEN 10, KC 31 | Missed |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | O/U 44.5 | 45.0 | Over · Coin flip | 23 | Missed |
| 49ers at Rams | O/U 47.5 | 51.4 | Over · Lean | 34 | Missed |
| Bears at Panthers | O/U 47.5 | 45.2 | Under · Slight lean | 96 | Missed |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | O/U 50.5 | 47.5 | Under · Lean | 60 | Missed |
| Saints at Lions | O/U 49.5 | 48.6 | Under · Coin flip | 61 | Missed |
| Bills at Texans | O/U 44.5 | 49.2 | Over · Lean | 67 | Hit |
| Ravens at Colts | O/U 48.5 | 50.7 | Over · Slight lean | 64 | Hit |
| Browns at Jaguars | O/U 40.5 | 43.3 | Over · Slight lean | 44 | Hit |
| Falcons at Steelers | O/U 40.5 | 44.0 | Over · Lean | 33 | Missed |
| Jets at Titans | O/U 39.5 | 44.5 | Over · Strong lean | 33 | Missed |
| Cardinals at Chargers | O/U 47.5 | 46.9 | Under · Coin flip | 40 | Hit |
| Dolphins at Raiders | O/U 40.5 | 44.7 | Over · Lean | 40 | Missed |
| Packers at Vikings | O/U 46.5 | 44.5 | Under · Slight lean | 61 | Missed |
| Commanders at Eagles | O/U 43.5 | 43.7 | Over · Coin flip | 46 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Giants | O/U 47.5 | 48.8 | Over · Slight lean | 48 | Hit |
| Broncos at Chiefs | O/U 42.5 | 40.0 | Under · Slight lean | 41 | Hit |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,028 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0251 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1033 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2004 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.4995 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8620 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0828 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6888 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,028 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5611 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1480 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.5975 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5265 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9740 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 1: every game from week 1 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →