Week 2, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 2 the Spread Dial's leans went 7–9–0 against the closing spread (43.8% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 6–10–0 against the closing total (37.5%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Bills | BUF −5.5 | Bills by 4.9 | Lions · Coin flip | DET 31, BUF 41 | Missed |
| Panthers at Falcons | CAR −2.5 | Falcons by 2.5 | Falcons · Lean | CAR 34, ATL 3 | Missed |
| Saints at Ravens | BAL −8.5 | Ravens by 6.3 | Saints · Slight lean | NO 24, BAL 17 | Covered |
| Vikings at Bears | CHI −4.5 | Bears by 4.3 | Vikings · Coin flip | MIN 9, CHI 3 | Covered |
| Bengals at Texans | HOU −3 | Texans by 5.4 | Texans · Slight lean | CIN 20, HOU 6 | Missed |
| Steelers at Patriots | NE −4.5 | Patriots by 6.3 | Patriots · Slight lean | PIT 3, NE 20 | Covered |
| Packers at Jets | GB −3.5 | Packers by 3.9 | Packers · Coin flip | GB 20, NYJ 17 | Missed |
| Browns at Buccaneers | TB −8.5 | Buccaneers by 4.5 | Browns · Lean | CLE 23, TB 19 | Covered |
| Eagles at Titans | PHI −7 | Eagles by 7.3 | Eagles · Coin flip | PHI 24, TEN 20 | Missed |
| Jaguars at Broncos | DEN −2.5 | Jaguars by 0.4 | Jaguars · Slight lean | JAX 13, DEN 20 | Missed |
| Raiders at Chargers | LAC −6.5 | Chargers by 5.8 | Raiders · Coin flip | LV 26, LAC 14 | Covered |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | SEA −3.5 | Seahawks by 6.1 | Seahawks · Slight lean | SEA 31, ARI 7 | Covered |
| Commanders at Cowboys | DAL −3.5 | Cowboys by 2.4 | Commanders · Slight lean | WAS 20, DAL 37 | Missed |
| Dolphins at 49ers | SF −12.5 | 49ers by 7.8 | Dolphins · Lean | MIA 13, SF 35 | Missed |
| Colts at Chiefs | KC −6 | Chiefs by 5.7 | Colts · Coin flip | IND 30, KC 33 | Covered |
| Giants at Rams | LA −6.5 | Rams by 6.0 | Giants · Coin flip | NYG 6, LA 28 | Missed |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Bills | O/U 54.5 | 50.2 | Under · Lean | 72 | Missed |
| Panthers at Falcons | O/U 43.5 | 46.5 | Over · Lean | 37 | Missed |
| Saints at Ravens | O/U 45.5 | 45.6 | Over · Coin flip | 41 | Missed |
| Vikings at Bears | O/U 46.5 | 45.4 | Under · Slight lean | 12 | Hit |
| Bengals at Texans | O/U 45.5 | 52.0 | Over · Strong lean | 26 | Missed |
| Steelers at Patriots | O/U 41.5 | 42.7 | Over · Slight lean | 23 | Missed |
| Packers at Jets | O/U 44.5 | 45.3 | Over · Coin flip | 37 | Missed |
| Browns at Buccaneers | O/U 41.5 | 42.2 | Over · Coin flip | 42 | Hit |
| Eagles at Titans | O/U 39.5 | 42.3 | Over · Slight lean | 44 | Hit |
| Jaguars at Broncos | O/U 45.5 | 45.2 | Under · Coin flip | 33 | Hit |
| Raiders at Chargers | O/U 43.5 | 41.6 | Under · Slight lean | 40 | Hit |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | O/U 40.5 | 48.0 | Over · Strong lean | 38 | Missed |
| Commanders at Cowboys | O/U 51.5 | 50.8 | Under · Coin flip | 57 | Missed |
| Dolphins at 49ers | O/U 44.5 | 45.1 | Over · Coin flip | 48 | Hit |
| Colts at Chiefs | O/U 46.5 | 45.9 | Under · Coin flip | 63 | Missed |
| Giants at Rams | O/U 47.5 | 50.3 | Over · Slight lean | 34 | Missed |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,044 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0254 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1031 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2006 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.4310 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8582 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0786 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6604 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,044 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5577 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1514 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.6235 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5237 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9986 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 2: every game from week 2 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →