Week 3, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 3 the Spread Dial's leans went 7–7–2 against the closing spread (50.0% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 9–7–0 against the closing total (56.3%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers | GB −4.5 | Packers by 8.5 | Packers · Lean | ATL 35, GB 14 | Missed |
| Chargers at Bills | BUF −7 | Bills by 9.6 | Bills · Slight lean | LAC 16, BUF 24 | Covered |
| Panthers at Browns | CAR −2.5 | Browns by 0.8 | Browns · Lean | CAR 18, CLE 21 | Covered |
| Jets at Lions | DET −7 | Lions by 9.7 | Lions · Slight lean | NYJ 24, DET 31 | Push |
| Texans at Colts | HOU −1.5 | Texans by 2.5 | Texans · Slight lean | HOU 17, IND 19 | Missed |
| Patriots at Jaguars | JAX −3 | Jaguars by 1.4 | Patriots · Slight lean | NE 6, JAX 35 | Missed |
| Chiefs at Dolphins | KC −10 | Chiefs by 4.2 | Dolphins · Strong lean | KC 24, MIA 10 | Missed |
| Titans at Giants | NYG −2.5 | Giants by 5.0 | Giants · Slight lean | TEN 7, NYG 12 | Covered |
| Bengals at Steelers | CIN −3.5 | Bengals by 0.3 | Steelers · Lean | CIN 27, PIT 30 | Covered |
| Seahawks at Commanders | SEA −8.5 | Seahawks by 6.6 | Commanders · Slight lean | SEA 31, WAS 33 | Covered |
| Cardinals at 49ers | SF −7.5 | 49ers by 8.6 | 49ers · Slight lean | ARI 30, SF 36 | Missed |
| Vikings at Buccaneers | MIN −1.5 | Vikings by 2.7 | Vikings · Slight lean | MIN 23, TB 16 | Covered |
| Ravens at Cowboys | BAL −3 | Ravens by 2.9 | Cowboys · Coin flip | BAL 34, DAL 31 | Push |
| Raiders at Saints | NO −3.5 | Saints by 4.5 | Saints · Slight lean | LV 35, NO 27 | Missed |
| Rams at Broncos | DEN −1.5 | Broncos by 0.4 | Rams · Slight lean | LA 26, DEN 30 | Missed |
| Eagles at Bears | PHI −3.5 | Eagles by 1.7 | Bears · Slight lean | PHI 7, CHI 27 | Covered |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers | O/U 43.5 | 43.9 | Over · Coin flip | 49 | Hit |
| Chargers at Bills | O/U 50.5 | 46.2 | Under · Lean | 40 | Hit |
| Panthers at Browns | O/U 41.5 | 42.8 | Over · Slight lean | 39 | Missed |
| Jets at Lions | O/U 49.5 | 49.1 | Under · Coin flip | 55 | Missed |
| Texans at Colts | O/U 41.5 | 46.5 | Over · Lean | 36 | Missed |
| Patriots at Jaguars | O/U 46.5 | 44.0 | Under · Slight lean | 41 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Dolphins | O/U 45.5 | 43.1 | Under · Slight lean | 34 | Hit |
| Titans at Giants | O/U 37.5 | 43.9 | Over · Strong lean | 19 | Missed |
| Bengals at Steelers | O/U 42.5 | 44.6 | Over · Slight lean | 57 | Hit |
| Seahawks at Commanders | O/U 40.5 | 45.9 | Over · Strong lean | 64 | Hit |
| Cardinals at 49ers | O/U 48.5 | 46.3 | Under · Slight lean | 66 | Missed |
| Vikings at Buccaneers | O/U 42.5 | 42.4 | Under · Coin flip | 39 | Hit |
| Ravens at Cowboys | O/U 53.5 | 49.6 | Under · Lean | 65 | Missed |
| Raiders at Saints | O/U 43.5 | 43.8 | Over · Coin flip | 62 | Hit |
| Rams at Broncos | O/U 43.5 | 46.0 | Over · Slight lean | 56 | Hit |
| Eagles at Bears | O/U 42.5 | 45.5 | Over · Slight lean | 34 | Missed |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,060 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0255 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1010 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2112 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.2875 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8409 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0776 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6679 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,060 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5570 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1542 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.5721 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5137 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −1.0217 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 3: every game from week 3 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →