Week 4, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 4 the Spread Dial's leans went 10–4–2 against the closing spread (71.4% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 7–9–0 against the closing total (43.8%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns | PIT −2.5 | Steelers by 0.1 | Browns · Slight lean | PIT 24, CLE 27 | Covered |
| Colts at Commanders | IND −4.5 | Colts by 3.5 | Commanders · Slight lean | IND 30, WAS 13 | Missed |
| Titans at Ravens | BAL −11.5 | Ravens by 11.4 | Titans · Coin flip | TEN 18, BAL 24 | Covered |
| Patriots at Bills | BUF −7 | Bills by 4.7 | Patriots · Slight lean | NE 29, BUF 26 | Covered |
| Jets at Bears | CHI −3.5 | Bears by 7.2 | Bears · Lean | NYJ 12, CHI 23 | Covered |
| Jaguars at Bengals | CIN −2.5 | Jaguars by 2.2 | Jaguars · Lean | JAX 22, CIN 17 | Covered |
| Cowboys at Texans | HOU −3 | Texans by 4.3 | Texans · Slight lean | DAL 34, HOU 30 | Missed |
| Cardinals at Giants | ARI −2.5 | Giants by 1.3 | Giants · Lean | ARI 24, NYG 36 | Covered |
| Rams at Eagles | LA −3.5 | Rams by 0.2 | Eagles · Lean | LA 24, PHI 20 | Missed |
| Packers at Buccaneers | GB −3 | Packers by 2.3 | Buccaneers · Coin flip | GB 17, TB 14 | Push |
| Dolphins at Vikings | MIN −10 | Vikings by 10.0 | Dolphins · Coin flip | MIA 10, MIN 15 | Covered |
| Chiefs at Raiders | KC −4.5 | Chiefs by 3.3 | Raiders · Slight lean | KC 30, LV 27 | Covered |
| Chargers at Seahawks | SEA −7 | Seahawks by 10.8 | Seahawks · Lean | LAC 23, SEA 30 | Push |
| Broncos at 49ers | SF −3 | 49ers by 3.3 | 49ers · Coin flip | DEN 14, SF 24 | Covered |
| Lions at Panthers | DET −4.5 | Lions by 2.1 | Panthers · Slight lean | DET 26, CAR 32 | Covered |
| Falcons at Saints | NO −1.5 | Saints by 3.8 | Saints · Slight lean | ATL 45, NO 24 | Missed |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns | O/U 38.5 | 40.8 | Over · Slight lean | 51 | Hit |
| Colts at Commanders | O/U 46.5 | 48.7 | Over · Slight lean | 43 | Missed |
| Titans at Ravens | O/U 42.5 | 43.7 | Over · Slight lean | 42 | Missed |
| Patriots at Bills | O/U 49.5 | 46.1 | Under · Lean | 55 | Missed |
| Jets at Bears | O/U 43.5 | 45.3 | Over · Slight lean | 35 | Missed |
| Jaguars at Bengals | O/U 51.5 | 48.4 | Under · Lean | 39 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Texans | O/U 48.5 | 50.7 | Over · Slight lean | 64 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Giants | O/U 44.5 | 46.3 | Over · Slight lean | 60 | Hit |
| Rams at Eagles | O/U 42.5 | 46.1 | Over · Lean | 44 | Hit |
| Packers at Buccaneers | O/U 38.5 | 44.9 | Over · Strong lean | 31 | Missed |
| Dolphins at Vikings | O/U 38.5 | 43.8 | Over · Strong lean | 25 | Missed |
| Chiefs at Raiders | O/U 47.5 | 43.3 | Under · Lean | 57 | Missed |
| Chargers at Seahawks | O/U 42.5 | 43.1 | Over · Coin flip | 53 | Hit |
| Broncos at 49ers | O/U 48.5 | 46.4 | Under · Slight lean | 38 | Hit |
| Lions at Panthers | O/U 52.5 | 48.8 | Under · Lean | 58 | Missed |
| Falcons at Saints | O/U 47.5 | 44.6 | Under · Slight lean | 69 | Missed |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,076 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0254 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1043 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2108 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.2278 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8462 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0753 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6191 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,076 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5636 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1505 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.5941 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5222 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −1.0064 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 4: every game from week 4 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →