Week 5, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 5 the Spread Dial's leans went 8–6–1 against the closing spread (57.1% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 6–9–0 against the closing total (40.0%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | DAL −9.5 | Cowboys by 6.4 | Buccaneers · Lean | TB 24, DAL 16 | Covered |
| Eagles at Jaguars | JAX −7.5 | Jaguars by 3.9 | Eagles · Lean | PHI 17, JAX 19 | Covered |
| Bears at Packers | CHI −1.5 | Packers by 0.6 | Packers · Slight lean | CHI 7, GB 31 | Covered |
| Bengals at Dolphins | CIN −7 | Bengals by 3.2 | Dolphins · Lean | CIN 31, MIA 24 | Push |
| Raiders at Patriots | NE −3.5 | Patriots by 7.4 | Patriots · Lean | LV 17, NE 45 | Covered |
| Vikings at Saints | MIN −2.5 | Vikings by 4.9 | Vikings · Slight lean | MIN 23, NO 13 | Covered |
| Browns at Jets | NYJ −2.5 | Browns by 1.8 | Browns · Lean | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | Missed |
| Colts at Steelers | PIT −3 | Steelers by 3.0 | Colts · Coin flip | IND 22, PIT 34 | Missed |
| Texans at Titans | HOU −6.5 | Texans by 5.5 | Titans · Coin flip | HOU 26, TEN 3 | Missed |
| Giants at Commanders | WAS −3.5 | Commanders by 1.3 | Giants · Slight lean | NYG 27, WAS 27 | Covered |
| Broncos at Chargers | DEN −3.5 | Broncos by 2.0 | Chargers · Slight lean | DEN 23, LAC 17 | Missed |
| Lions at Cardinals | DET −5.5 | Lions by 3.3 | Cardinals · Slight lean | DET 45, ARI 21 | Missed |
| 49ers at Seahawks | SEA −3 | Seahawks by 3.5 | Seahawks · Coin flip | SF 32, SEA 29 | Missed |
| Ravens at Falcons | ATL −3.5 | Falcons by 1.2 | Ravens · Slight lean | BAL 30, ATL 23 | Covered |
| Bills at Rams | LA −3.5 | Rams by 1.2 | Bills · Slight lean | BUF 37, LA 34 | Covered |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | O/U 49.5 | 50.6 | Over · Slight lean | 40 | Missed |
| Eagles at Jaguars | O/U 41.5 | 43.9 | Over · Slight lean | 36 | Missed |
| Bears at Packers | O/U 46.5 | 44.7 | Under · Slight lean | 38 | Hit |
| Bengals at Dolphins | O/U 44.5 | 44.9 | Over · Coin flip | 55 | Hit |
| Raiders at Patriots | O/U 45.5 | 42.4 | Under · Lean | 62 | Missed |
| Vikings at Saints | O/U 41.5 | 45.0 | Over · Lean | 36 | Missed |
| Browns at Jets | O/U 38.5 | 41.5 | Over · Slight lean | 29 | Missed |
| Colts at Steelers | O/U 41.5 | 46.3 | Over · Lean | 56 | Hit |
| Texans at Titans | O/U 37.5 | 41.6 | Over · Lean | 29 | Missed |
| Giants at Commanders | O/U 41.5 | 45.3 | Over · Lean | 54 | Hit |
| Broncos at Chargers | O/U 42.5 | 44.0 | Over · Slight lean | 40 | Missed |
| Lions at Cardinals | O/U 55.5 | 53.3 | Under · Slight lean | 66 | Missed |
| 49ers at Seahawks | O/U 46.5 | 46.9 | Over · Coin flip | 61 | Hit |
| Ravens at Falcons | O/U 44.5 | 46.0 | Over · Slight lean | 53 | Hit |
| Bills at Rams | O/U 55.5 | 53.8 | Under · Slight lean | 71 | Missed |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,092 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0252 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1053 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2149 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.2930 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8366 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0761 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.5919 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,092 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5598 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1526 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.6320 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5201 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9424 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 5: every game from week 5 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →