Week 6, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 6 the Spread Dial's leans went 5–9–0 against the closing spread (35.7% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 5–9–0 against the closing total (35.7%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | SEA −2.5 | Seahawks by 1.6 | Broncos · Coin flip | SEA 14, DEN 17 | Covered |
| Texans at Jaguars | JAX −2.5 | Jaguars by 3.5 | Jaguars · Slight lean | HOU 34, JAX 31 | Missed |
| Bears at Falcons | CHI −1.5 | Falcons by 0.4 | Falcons · Slight lean | CHI 31, ATL 23 | Missed |
| Ravens at Browns | BAL −3 | Ravens by 0.9 | Browns · Slight lean | BAL 10, CLE 13 | Covered |
| Titans at Colts | IND −6.5 | Colts by 8.1 | Colts · Slight lean | TEN 26, IND 20 | Missed |
| Jets at Patriots | NE −7.5 | Patriots by 11.1 | Patriots · Lean | NYJ 19, NE 26 | Missed |
| Saints at Giants | NO −1.5 | Giants by 3.8 | Giants · Strong lean | NO 34, NYG 27 | Missed |
| Panthers at Eagles | CAR −3 | Panthers by 0.3 | Eagles · Slight lean | CAR 25, PHI 14 | Missed |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | PIT −2.5 | Steelers by 2.2 | Buccaneers · Coin flip | PIT 26, TB 19 | Missed |
| Cardinals at Rams | LA −12.5 | Rams by 11.4 | Cardinals · Slight lean | ARI 18, LA 16 | Covered |
| Chargers at Chiefs | KC −7.5 | Chiefs by 8.9 | Chiefs · Slight lean | LAC 6, KC 22 | Covered |
| Bills at Raiders | BUF −5.5 | Bills by 6.7 | Bills · Slight lean | BUF 33, LV 30 | Missed |
| Cowboys at Packers | DAL −1.5 | Packers by 3.9 | Packers · Strong lean | DAL 13, GB 23 | Covered |
| Commanders at 49ers | SF −7.5 | 49ers by 11.4 | 49ers · Lean | WAS 17, SF 23 | Missed |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | O/U 40.5 | 45.1 | Over · Lean | 31 | Missed |
| Texans at Jaguars | O/U 42.5 | 44.0 | Over · Slight lean | 65 | Hit |
| Bears at Falcons | O/U 51.5 | 47.7 | Under · Lean | 54 | Missed |
| Ravens at Browns | O/U 39.5 | 42.9 | Over · Lean | 23 | Missed |
| Titans at Colts | O/U 43.5 | 43.2 | Under · Coin flip | 46 | Missed |
| Jets at Patriots | O/U 43.5 | 42.2 | Under · Slight lean | 45 | Missed |
| Saints at Giants | O/U 46.5 | 44.6 | Under · Slight lean | 61 | Missed |
| Panthers at Eagles | O/U 39.5 | 43.1 | Over · Lean | 39 | Missed |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | O/U 38.5 | 43.1 | Over · Lean | 45 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Rams | O/U 51.5 | 52.4 | Over · Coin flip | 34 | Missed |
| Chargers at Chiefs | O/U 41.5 | 41.0 | Under · Coin flip | 28 | Hit |
| Bills at Raiders | O/U 53.5 | 51.5 | Under · Slight lean | 63 | Missed |
| Cowboys at Packers | O/U 53.5 | 47.4 | Under · Strong lean | 36 | Hit |
| Commanders at 49ers | O/U 51.5 | 49.4 | Under · Slight lean | 40 | Hit |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,107 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0255 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1031 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2158 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.4432 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8256 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0776 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.5895 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,107 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5693 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1516 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.6208 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5295 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9591 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 6: every game from week 6 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →