Week 7, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 7 the Spread Dial's leans went 6–8–0 against the closing spread (42.9% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 9–5–0 against the closing total (64.3%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bears | CHI −3 | Patriots by 0.5 | Patriots · Lean | NE 24, CHI 30 | Missed |
| Steelers at Saints | PIT −3 | Steelers by 4.0 | Steelers · Slight lean | PIT 16, NO 10 | Covered |
| 49ers at Falcons | SF −2.5 | 49ers by 3.5 | 49ers · Slight lean | SF 20, ATL 29 | Missed |
| Bengals at Ravens | CIN −3 | Bengals by 0.6 | Ravens · Slight lean | CIN 35, BAL 13 | Missed |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | CAR −3 | Panthers by 4.5 | Panthers · Slight lean | TB 43, CAR 13 | Missed |
| Giants at Texans | HOU −10 | Texans by 8.8 | Giants · Slight lean | NYG 27, HOU 21 | Covered |
| Colts at Vikings | MIN −6.5 | Vikings by 9.5 | Vikings · Slight lean | IND 10, MIN 16 | Missed |
| Dolphins at Jets | NYJ −3.5 | Dolphins by 0.3 | Dolphins · Lean | MIA 28, NYJ 25 | Covered |
| Browns at Titans | CLE −1.5 | Browns by 3.1 | Browns · Slight lean | CLE 27, TEN 24 | Covered |
| Broncos at Cardinals | DEN −4.5 | Broncos by 6.6 | Broncos · Slight lean | DEN 30, ARI 16 | Covered |
| Packers at Lions | DET −3.5 | Lions by 3.9 | Lions · Coin flip | GB 17, DET 20 | Missed |
| Rams at Raiders | LA −3.5 | Rams by 5.1 | Rams · Slight lean | LA 35, LV 21 | Covered |
| Chiefs at Seahawks | SEA −3 | Seahawks by 1.5 | Chiefs · Slight lean | KC 3, SEA 20 | Missed |
| Cowboys at Eagles | DAL −4.5 | Eagles by 3.9 | Eagles · Strong lean | DAL 38, PHI 21 | Missed |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bears | O/U 50.5 | 45.3 | Under · Strong lean | 54 | Missed |
| Steelers at Saints | O/U 43.5 | 47.8 | Over · Lean | 26 | Missed |
| 49ers at Falcons | O/U 49.5 | 49.0 | Under · Coin flip | 49 | Hit |
| Bengals at Ravens | O/U 46.5 | 46.7 | Over · Coin flip | 48 | Hit |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | O/U 44.5 | 42.5 | Under · Slight lean | 56 | Missed |
| Giants at Texans | O/U 42.5 | 48.4 | Over · Strong lean | 48 | Hit |
| Colts at Vikings | O/U 41.5 | 45.6 | Over · Lean | 26 | Missed |
| Dolphins at Jets | O/U 39.5 | 40.9 | Over · Slight lean | 53 | Hit |
| Browns at Titans | O/U 36.5 | 39.7 | Over · Lean | 51 | Hit |
| Broncos at Cardinals | O/U 44.5 | 48.7 | Over · Lean | 46 | Hit |
| Packers at Lions | O/U 55.5 | 49.9 | Under · Strong lean | 37 | Hit |
| Rams at Raiders | O/U 49.5 | 51.1 | Over · Slight lean | 56 | Hit |
| Chiefs at Seahawks | O/U 43.5 | 44.7 | Over · Slight lean | 23 | Missed |
| Cowboys at Eagles | O/U 43.5 | 43.6 | Over · Coin flip | 59 | Hit |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,121 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0256 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1021 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2217 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.4052 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.8109 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0752 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6211 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,121 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5745 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1457 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.6321 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5264 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9812 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 7: every game from week 7 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →