Week 8, 2026: the leans, graded
In week 8 the Spread Dial's leans went 10–4–0 against the closing spread (71.4% of decided games), and the Totals Dial's went 5–9–0 against the closing total (35.7%). Break-even at standard −110 pricing is 52.38%, and one week of games is mostly luck.
Informational only. These are a formula's leans graded against past closing lines; they are not betting advice, and no wagering is offered or arranged here.
Against the spread
| Game | Closing line | Our margin | Lean | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Packers | GB −3.5 | Packers by 5.5 | Packers · Slight lean | CAR 19, GB 27 | Covered |
| Ravens at Bills | BUF −3 | Bills by 7.1 | Bills · Lean | BAL 10, BUF 36 | Covered |
| Titans at Bengals | CIN −13.5 | Bengals by 10.8 | Titans · Slight lean | TEN 36, CIN 43 | Covered |
| Cardinals at Cowboys | DAL −7 | Cowboys by 5.5 | Cardinals · Slight lean | ARI 33, DAL 30 | Covered |
| Vikings at Lions | DET −3 | Lions by 0.2 | Vikings · Slight lean | MIN 15, DET 19 | Missed |
| Colts at Jaguars | JAX −10 | Jaguars by 11.7 | Jaguars · Slight lean | IND 7, JAX 42 | Covered |
| Raiders at Jets | NYJ −1.5 | Jets by 1.5 | Raiders · Coin flip | LV 38, NYJ 33 | Covered |
| Browns at Steelers | PIT −3.5 | Steelers by 4.9 | Steelers · Slight lean | CLE 6, PIT 27 | Covered |
| Falcons at Buccaneers | TB −2.5 | Buccaneers by 1.6 | Falcons · Coin flip | ATL 0, TB 16 | Missed |
| Chargers at Rams | LA −6.5 | Rams by 6.3 | Chargers · Coin flip | LAC 9, LA 24 | Missed |
| Chiefs at Broncos | DEN −1.5 | Broncos by 2.9 | Broncos · Slight lean | KC 24, DEN 28 | Covered |
| Patriots at Dolphins | NE −7 | Patriots by 6.9 | Dolphins · Coin flip | NE 24, MIA 19 | Covered |
| Eagles at Commanders | WAS −6 | Commanders by 4.0 | Eagles · Slight lean | PHI 10, WAS 27 | Missed |
| Bears at Seahawks | SEA −3 | Seahawks by 2.7 | Bears · Coin flip | CHI 34, SEA 17 | Covered |
Our margin is the formula's expected result at its fitted weights. The lean is the side it expected to beat the line, and its label is the size of that edge: under 1 point a coin flip, 1–3 slight, 3–5 a lean, 5 or more strong. Every lean counts.
Over/under
| Game | Closing total | Our total | Lean | Final total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Packers | O/U 47.5 | 44.2 | Under · Lean | 46 | Hit |
| Ravens at Bills | O/U 54.5 | 49.5 | Under · Lean | 46 | Hit |
| Titans at Bengals | O/U 45.5 | 45.8 | Over · Coin flip | 79 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Cowboys | O/U 54.5 | 52.0 | Under · Slight lean | 63 | Missed |
| Vikings at Lions | O/U 46.5 | 47.0 | Over · Coin flip | 34 | Missed |
| Colts at Jaguars | O/U 45.5 | 45.7 | Over · Coin flip | 49 | Hit |
| Raiders at Jets | O/U 46.5 | 43.7 | Under · Slight lean | 71 | Missed |
| Browns at Steelers | O/U 38.5 | 41.0 | Over · Slight lean | 33 | Missed |
| Falcons at Buccaneers | O/U 42.5 | 45.5 | Over · Slight lean | 16 | Missed |
| Chargers at Rams | O/U 46.5 | 48.0 | Over · Slight lean | 33 | Missed |
| Chiefs at Broncos | O/U 41.5 | 41.0 | Under · Coin flip | 52 | Missed |
| Patriots at Dolphins | O/U 41.5 | 42.9 | Over · Slight lean | 43 | Hit |
| Eagles at Commanders | O/U 40.5 | 42.7 | Over · Slight lean | 37 | Missed |
| Bears at Seahawks | O/U 46.5 | 45.6 | Under · Coin flip | 51 | Missed |
Our total is the Totals Dial's expected combined score at its fitted weights; the lean is over or under by the same size bands as the spread.
The formulas this week
The spread formula was fitted on 3,135 games from 2015 through the week before. Each number is how many points of home margin one unit of that factor was worth; the signs are as fitted, even where they look backwards.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Power rating | +0.0255 | Elo points ahead |
| Recent form | +0.1024 | points of margin, last 4 games |
| Rest edge | +0.2331 | days of rest ahead |
| Cover trend | −1.4620 | cover rate, last 6 games |
| Home field | +1.7848 | playing at home |
| Play efficiency | +0.0754 | net EPA per 100 plays |
| QB change | −2.6154 | QB change |
The totals formula was fitted on 3,135 games. It starts from a league-average total of 45.7 points, and each number is how many points one unit above an ordinary game adds or takes away.
| Factor | Points per unit | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Season pace | +0.5854 | points of average total, last 16 games |
| Recent pace | +0.1388 | points of average total, last 4 games |
| Roof | +2.5510 | game under a roof |
| Combined strength | +0.5049 | hundred Elo points, both teams together |
| Division game | −0.9372 | divisional matchup |
How this week was graded
The Spread Dial and the Totals Dial were rebuilt as they stood before week 8: every game from week 8 on was treated as unplayed, so the ratings, the factors and the fits above come from earlier games only. Each lean was then graded against nflverse's closing spread or total and the final score. The full method and the season record are on the Weekly Record page.
Source: nflverse schedules and results (games.csv), CC-BY 4.0.
Last reviewed: September 2026. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.
Related tools
Every game this week, scored against the point spread from seven public factors, with an out-of-sample record since 2016. Turn the dials to weight them your way and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL Totals DialEvery game this week, scored against the over/under from five public factors: pace, roof, combined strength, division game. Turn the dials and watch the back-test update.
Open tool →NFL ATS RecordsEvery NFL team's record against the spread and the total since 2015, with home, road, favorite, underdog and off-a-bye splits — and how much of it is chance.
Open tool →